091 AXNT20 KNHC 062220 CCA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Dec 06 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1740 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... ...Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning... A first western Atlantic Ocean cold front now passes through 31N71W. A second cold front now passes through 31N80W. The fronts will merge in about 30 hours to 36 hours. That merged front will pass through 31N45W toward the Bahamas in about 48 hours. Gale-force W to NW winds, and rough seas, are forecast to develop in about 6 hours, from 29N northward between 70W and 76W. Gale-force W to NW winds, and very rough seas, will cover the areas that are from 27N northward between 57W and 63W, in about 24 hours. The gale-force winds will end in about 36 hours. Rough to very rough seas in W to NW swell will continue at 36 hours from 28N northward between 48W and 59W. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecasts, and the Offshores Waters Forecasts, that are issued by the National Hurricane Center, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains borders of Guinea and Sierra Leone, to 04N22W. The ITCZ continues from 04N22W, to 03N40W 04N40W 04N45W. A surface trough is along 54W/55W, from 07N to 14N. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 01N to 12N between 33W and 50W. An upper level trough extends from a 24N24W cyclonic circulation center, to 17N30W and 13N60W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and widely scattered moderate to isolated strong, are to the east and the southeast of the line 31N23W 20N25W 19N40W 16N60W. A dissipating cold front passes through 31N10W in Africa, to 22N20W 16N35W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Mostly fresh to some strong northerly winds are from 24N southward from 91W westward. Mostly moderate to some rough seas are from 23N southward from 90W westward. Slight seas are in the NW corner of the area. Slight to mostly moderate seas cover the rest of the area. A cold front extends from NW Cuba to 22N86W, where it continues as a stationary front to weak low pressure of 1017 mb in the south-central Bay of Campeche near 19N94W. The front will move SE and enter the NW Caribbean late this morning, accompanied by fresh to strong winds. Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected to persist along the coast near Veracruz, Mexico through today. Strong NE winds will expand across the Bay of Campeche this afternoon before diminishing tonight. High pressure behind the front will shift eastward into the Atlantic Thu night, inducing moderate to fresh return flow across most of the basin Fri through Sat, ahead of the next cold front that is forecast to enter the NW Gulf Sat evening. Strong to near-gale force winds are likely behind the front, with gale force winds possible in the SW Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Strong NE winds have been from 16N southward between 70W and 78W during the late night and early morning hours of today. Fresh easterly winds are in the eastern one-third of the area. Fresh to moderate NE winds are elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. Moderate to rough seas are in parts of the SW corner of the area, in the waters that are from 15N southward between Colombia and Panama. Moderate seas are elsewhere from 17N southward from 83W eastward. Slight seas are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Shallow patches of moisture are supporting isolated showers throughout the area. The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N from 75W, westward, beyond western Panama and southern Costa Rica. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the time period that ended at 06/1200 UTC, are: 0.28 in Guadeloupe, and 0.17 in Trinidad, according to the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables, MIATPTPAN. Large NE swell is expected to continue across the Tropical N Atlantic waters to the east of the Lesser Antilles through Thu. A cold front will move into the northwestern Caribbean this morning, reach from the N coast of Hispaniola to the Gulf of Honduras Thu night, where it will remain nearly stationary through Sat. Fresh to strong NE winds are expected to develop in the vicinity of the front across the Yucatan Channel and in the lee of Cuba tonight. Strong winds will develop in the Windward Passage Thu evening with the front and expand across most of the east and central Caribbean by Sat. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the cold fronts that are in the western Atlantic Ocean now. A resulting merged frontal boundary will reach 31N45W 19N71W by 48 hours. Expect gale-force winds, and rough to very rough seas, in parts of the central Atlantic Ocean and the western Atlantic Ocean, during the next 36 hours to 48 hours or so. Fresh to strong NW winds are from 25N northward from 72W westward. A surface ridge extends from a 34N16W 1021 mb high pressure center, to a 27N41W 1020 mb high pressure center, to 23N66W. Moderate to rough seas are from 18N southward between 40W and 60W; and from 28N northward between 30W and 60W. A surface trough is along 54W/55W, from 07N to 14N. Strong to near gale-force easterly winds are within 180 nm to the east of the surface trough. Mostly fresh to some strong NE winds are from 20N southward between 35W and 60W. Fresh SW winds are to the north of 31N37W 26N51W 23N70W. Moderate or slower winds, and moderate seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. A cold front extends from near 31N71W to 25N76W and to central Cuba. The front will move SE and reach from near 31N62W to eastern Cuba by this evening, then weaken from near 31N49W to the N coast of Hispaniola Thu evening. Gale-force winds and high seas are expected both ahead of and behind this front, to the north of 28N from this afternoon through Thu evening. The front will stall along 20N Fri through Sat as strong high pressure builds across the western Atlantic. $$ MT/JA