000 AXNT20 KNHC 060551 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Dec 6 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western and Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front curves southwestward from a 1009 mb low off the North Carolina coast across 31N75W and the northwest Bahamas to beyond the Florida Keys. Widely scattered showers are noted near and up to 90 nm northwest of this front. Fresh W to NW winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft exist north of 29N between the front and northeast coast of Florida. As the low deepens and moves eastward across the western Atlantic, it will channel near-gale to gale W to NW winds behind the front north of 29N between 69W and 75W by early Wednesday afternoon. Seas in this area will build to between 11 and 13 ft. These winds are going to shift eastward across the western Atlantic into the central Atlantic Wednesday night through Thursday. Seas will build further to between 14 and 18 ft. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the southern Guinea- Bissau coast, then runs southwestward to 05N19W. An ITCZ continues westward from 05N19W across 04N35W to 05N50W. Widely scattered moderate convection is seen south of the trough from 01N to 06N between the Liberia coast and 17W. Widely scattered to scattered moderate convection is present up to 150 nm south, and 250 nm north of the ITCZ west of 24W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front from the Western Atlantic passes through the Florida Keys to just north of the Yucatan Peninsula near 22N88W, then continues southwestward to a 1013 mb low in the central Bay of Campeche. A surface trough reaches northwestward from this low to offshore of Tampico, Mexico. Scattered showers are occurring near the trough and north of the stationary front across the west- central, southwestern and south-central Gulf. Widely scattered showers are evident near the cold front over the southeastern Gulf, and also farther north across the northwestern and north- central Gulf. Fresh to strong NW to NE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are found at the southwestern Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. Moderate to locally fresh NNW to NE winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the cold front will move southeastward and enter the northwestern Caribbean on Wed, accompanied by fresh to strong winds. Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected to persist along the coast near Veracruz, Mexico through Wed. Strong NE winds will expand across the Bay of Campeche Wed before diminishing Wed night. High pressure behind the front will shift eastward into the Atlantic Thu night, inducing moderate to fresh southerly winds across most of the Gulf Fri through Sat. The next cold front is forecast to enter the northwestern Gulf Sat evening. Strong to near-gale force winds are likely behind the front, with gale-force winds possible in the southwestern Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Water vapor satellite imagery at low to mid levels, all indicate a very dry trade-wind pattern over much of the basin. Nevertheless, convergent trade winds are causing widely scattered showers between 15N and 18N from the Cayman Islands eastward, passing through Jamaica and south of Puerto Rico to the northern Leeward Islands. Fresh to strong ENE winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are found at the south-central basin. Mainly moderate NE to ENE winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft are noted at the northwestern basin. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 4 to 7 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the basin. For the forecast, large NE swell is expected to continue across the Tropical Atlantic waters east of the Lesser Antilles through Thu. A cold front is forecast to move into the northwestern Caribbean Wed morning, and reach from the northern coast of Hispaniola to the Gulf of Honduras Thu night, where it will remain nearly stationary through Sat. Fresh to strong NE winds are anticipated to develop in the vicinity of the front across the Yucatan Channel and in the lee of Cuba on Wed night. Strong winds will develop in the Windward Passage Thu evening near the front and then expand across most of the central and eastern Caribbean by Sat. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section about a Gale Warning in the Atlantic. Besides the cold front and related seas and weather mentioned in the Special Features section, Another cold front extends southwestward from the north-central Atlantic across 31N58W to south of Bermuda near 29N65W, then continues as a dissipating stationary front across the central Bahamas to the Florida Straits. Widely scattered showers are evident near and up to 50 nm north of this boundary. At the eastern Atlantic, yet a third cold front stretches southwestward from a 1007 mb low south of Portugal across 31N12W to near 26N23W, then continues as a stationary front to 25N28W. Scattered showers are noted near and up to 90 nm northwest of this boundary. Aided by an upper-level low near 25N26W, scattered thunderstorms are occurring near the stationary front. A surface trough runs northward from north of French Guiana at 07N53W to 14N52W. Scattered moderate convection persist near and east of this feature from 10N to 14N between 38W and 52W. Strong upper-level flow is carrying thick cirrus from this convection northeastward across the Cabo Verde Islands to near the Canary Islands. Moderate to fresh SW winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft are present near and east of the second cold front north of 29N between 40W and 58W. Otherwise, gentle to moderate NNE to SSE winds and 4 to 7 ft seas are seen north of 20N between the Africa coast and first cold front/Bahamas, including the Canary Islands. Near the Cabo Verde Islands, gentle to moderate with locally fresh NNE to NE winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft in moderate northerly swell dominate from 05N to 20N between the central Africa coast and 40W. Farther west, moderate to fresh ENE to E winds and 7 to 9 ft seas exist from 05N to 20N between 40W and the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle southerly and monsoonal winds prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 55W, the first cold front will move southeastward and reach from near 31N62W to eastern Cuba by Wed evening, then reach from near 31N55W to the northern coast of Hispaniola while weakening Thu evening. Gale-force winds and high seas are expected both ahead of and behind this front, to the north of 28N, Wed afternoon through Thu evening. The front will stall along 20N Fri through Sat as strong high pressure builds across the western Atlantic. $$ Chan