000 AXNT20 KNHC 051037 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Dec 5 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Atlantic Gale Warning: A couple of fronts will merge in the W Atlantic tonight, reach from near Bermuda to central Cuba Thu morning, then stall from near 24N55W to the N coast of Hispaniola Fri morning. Gale-force winds are expected both ahead of and behind this front, to the north of 27N, Wed evening through Thu evening. Seas will build to 18 ft by Thu. Conditions will quickly improve Fri as the front weakens and moves E. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07N12W to 05N17W. The ITCZ extends from 05N17W to 04N47W. A surface trough is analyzed south of 14N, along 49W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 10N and between 25W and 47W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from SW Florida to near 22N93W then continues to the central Bay of Campeche. A second cold front stretches from the Florida Big Bend to near 24N97W. Multilayer cloudiness covers most of the Gulf of Mexico behind the frontal boundaries, along with a few showers. The pressure gradient between the high pressure over Mexico and lower pressures associated with the fronts sustain fresh NE winds south of 24N and west of the southernmost front. Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, the fronts will merge today, accompanied by fresh to strong winds. Fresh to strong northwest winds are expected along the coast near Veracruz, Mexico this afternoon through Wed. High pressure behind the second front will shift E into the Atlantic Thu night, inducing moderate to fresh return flow across most of the basin Fri through Sat, ahead of the next cold front. CARIBBEAN SEA... A dry airmass covers the Caribbean Sea, suppressing the development of deep convection. The tight pressure gradient continues to support fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the central Caribbean Sea. Seas in these waters are 8-10 ft. The strongest winds and highest seas are occurring off the coast of NW Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes are present in the eastern Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras, along with seas of 4-7 ft. Light to gentle winds and seas of 2-5 ft are prevalent elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas will prevail across the south-central and portions of the SW Caribbean through Wed. Fresh trades and large NE swell are expected to continue across the Tropical N Atlantic waters to the east of the Lesser Antilles through Thu night. A cold front is expected to move into the northwestern Caribbean early Wed, and reach from the N coast of Hispaniola to the Gulf of Honduras by Fri morning, where it will remain nearly stationary through Sat. Fresh to strong NE winds are expected to develop in the vicinity of the front SW of the Yucatan Channel on Wed night. Strong winds will develop in the Windward Passage Thu evening through Sat with the front, and will also return to the waters offshore of NW Colombia during that time. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for information on the Gale Warning for the west-central waters. A cold front enters the southwest North Atlantic near 31N70W to 26N80W. Moderate to fresh westerly winds and seas of 3-6 ft are found behind the frontal boundary. A surface trough extends along 74W with no significant convection. The remainder of the SW North Atlantic (W of 55W) is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 4-8 ft are prevalent. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics sustain moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 8-10 ft south of 20N. The strongest winds and highest seas are noted east of the Leeward Islands. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the high near 29N46W will shift SE and weaken through Wed, ahead of a cold front that is currently off the coast of eastern Florida and into the offshore Atlantic W of 70W. Fresh E winds and rough seas in NE swell prevail S of 22N and E of 70W and will gradually subside today. The cold front will drift SE and weaken considerably through Tue night. The next cold front is expected to enter the NW waters tonight, reach from near Bermuda to central Cuba Thu morning, then stall from near 24N55W to the N coast of Hispaniola Fri morning. Gale-force winds and high seas are expected both ahead of and behind this front, to the north of 27N, Wed evening through Thu evening. $$ ERA