000 AXNT20 KNHC 042328 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Dec 5 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is confined to the African continent. The ITCZ extends from 07N12W to 01N25W to 00N39W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 04N between 09W and 38W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 2100 UTC, a cold front extends from Ft. Myers, Florida near 26N82W to 23N89W where it stalls to the western Bay of Campeche near 19N96W. Scattered showers are occurring within 60 nm of this front. A reinforcing cold front extends across the northern Gulf from the Florida Panhandle near 30N87W to northern Mexico near 26N97W. Only within the SW Gulf of Mexico are there any N fresh winds behind the front. Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker across the Gulf. Seas are 3-5 ft in the SW Gulf and 2-4 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, the primary front will move slowly SE across the Gulf and into the Yucatan Peninsula and the NW Caribbean by Tue night, accompanied by fresh to locally strong winds north of the front. Fresh to strong northwest winds are expected along the coast near Veracruz, Mexico Tue through Wed. High pressure behind the front will shift E into the Atlantic Thu night, inducing moderate to fresh return flow across most of the basin Fri through Sat, ahead of the next cold front. CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between ridging to the north of the Caribbean and an 1006 mb Colombian low is forcing fresh to strong with locally near-gale E trades over the central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trade winds prevail across the rest of the basin. Seas are 7-10 ft over the S central Caribbean and 4-7 ft elsewhere. No significant deep convection is occurring today. For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will extend W-SW to the SE Bahamas through early Wed, maintaining fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas across the south-central and portions of the SW Caribbean. South of the ridge, fresh trades and large NE swell are expected to continue across the Tropical N Atlantic waters to the east of the Lesser Antilles through Wed night. A cold front is expected to move into the northwestern Caribbean early Wed, and reach from the N coast of Hispaniola to the Gulf of Honduras by Fri morning, where it will remain nearly stationary through Sat. Fresh to strong NE winds are expected to develop in the Windward Passage Thu evening through Sat with the front, and will also return to the waters offshore of NW Colombia during that time. ATLANTIC OCEAN... In the western Atlantic, a cold front extends off the coast of Florida from 31N76W to north of West Palm Beach, Florida near 27N80W. Showers are likely occurring near the front. Moderate to fresh W to NW winds are occurring behind the front with gentle to moderate SW winds ahead of the front. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in this region. In the central Atlantic, surface ridging extends across the area anchored by a 1023 mb high pres near 29N47W. Light to gentle winds are occurring underneath the high with seas 4 to 6 ft. Between the high pressure and shearline discussed below, moderate to fresh trade winds are noted from 23N southward to the ITCZ, including impacting the Lesser Antilles. Seas range 7 to 10 ft in this area. In the eastern Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N25W to 18N40W with a shearline to 16N57W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 19N to 31N and W of 15W to the cold front. Moderate to fresh NE winds are noted behind the front with gentle to moderate SW winds ahead of the front. Gentle to moderate winds also prevail over the Canary Islands southward to 18N. Off the African coast from southern Mauritania to the ITCZ, winds are moderate to locally fresh. Seas range 4 to 6 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will shift SE and weaken through Wed, ahead of a cold front that has moved off the coast of northeastern Florida and into the offshore Atlantic waters this afternoon. Fresh E winds and rough seas in NE swell prevail S of 25N and E of 66W and will gradually subside tonight. The cold front will reach from near Bermuda through the NW Bahamas to the Florida Keys Tue morning, then drift SE and weaken considerably through Tue night. The next cold front is expected to enter the NW waters Tue night, reach from near Bermuda to central Cuba Thu morning, then stall from near 24N55W to the N coast of Hispaniola Fri morning. Gale- force winds and high seas are expected both ahead of and behind this front, to the north of 27N, Wed evening through Thu evening. $$ AReinhart