000 AXNT20 KNHC 041732 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Dec 4 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is confined to the African continent. The ITCZ extends from 07N11W to 05N35W. A surface trough is analyzed S of 09N, along 42W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N-17N between 28W-37W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 1500 UTC, a cold front extends from the Florida peninsula near 28N82W southwestward to 26N88W. From there, the front transitions to stationary to SE Mexico near 18N94W. Scattered showers are occurring within 60 NM of this front. A reinforcing cold front has just emerged from the Texas-Louisiana coast and extends from 29N91W to 27N98W. Only within the SW Gulf of Mexico are there any N fresh winds behind the front. Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker across the Gulf. Seas are 4-7 ft in the SW Gulf and 2-4 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, the primary front will move slowly SE across the Gulf and into the Yucatan Peninsula and the NW Caribbean by early Wed, accompanied by fresh winds within 120 nm north of the front. Fresh to strong northwest winds are expected in the far SW Gulf near Veracruz, Mexico through this evening as the front moves away from the area, then will return Wed through Thu as the next front approaches. CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between ridging to the north of the Caribbean and an 1008 mb Colombian Low is forcing fresh to strong with locally near-gale E trades this morning over the central Caribbean. Seas are 8-11 ft over the S central Caribbean and 3-7 ft elsewhere. No significant deep convection is occurring today. For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will extend W-SW to the SE Bahamas through early Wed, maintaining fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas across the south-central and portions of the SW Caribbean. South of the ridge, fresh trades and large NE swell are expected to continue across the Tropical N Atlantic waters to the east of the Lesser Antilles through Wed. Fresh to strong winds will resume in the SW basin Thu evening and prevail through the weekend as high pressure builds E of the Bahamas, in the wake of a new cold front moving across the western Atlantic. This cold front is expected to move into the northwestern Caribbean early Wed and reach from NW Hispaniola to the Gulf of Honduras by Fri. Fresh to strong NE winds are expected to develop in the Windward Passage Thu evening through Fri night with the front. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from the 1015 mb low just north of our waters at 34N27W to 27N30W. From that point, it transitions to a cold front extending to 17N47W. At that location, the cold front transitions to a shear line extending to 16N57W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring north of 23N east of 30W. N to NE winds behind the front north of 25N east of 40W are fresh to strong. Seas within 240 NM northwest of the front/shear line are 8-10 ft. A second cold front has emerged off of the NE Florida coast and extends from 31N80W to 30N81W. Finally, a pronounced surface trough analyzed S of 09N along 42W is forcing fresh to strong E winds within 300 NM to the east. Seas are 8-10 ft. Elsewhere, the 1026 mb Bermuda-Azores High is centered near 30N47W with ridging extending west-southwestward toward the Florida peninsula. The pressure gradient from the high/ridge to the ITCZ is forcing moderate to fresh trades south of 20N. The remainder of the basin has winds moderate or weaker. Seas are 4- 7 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, the ridge will shift SE and weaken through tonight ahead of the next cold front that is expected to emerge off the coast of northeastern Florida this afternoon. Fresh E winds and rough seas in NE swell prevail S of 25N and E of 65W today and will gradually subside through tonight. The cold front will reach from near 31N76W to Ft Lauderdale, FL tonight, then weaken considerably as it reaches from near 31N58W to the northwestern Bahamas Tue evening. Another cold front is expected to move across the NW waters Tue night and move away of the region Thu night. This second front will be followed by strong to near gale-force NW winds north of 27N, with gale-force winds possible north of 29N Wed night through Thu. $$ Landsea