000 AXNT20 KNHC 031707 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun Dec 3 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1650 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: 1014 mb low pressure is centered near 28N38W. Cyclonic gales are north of 28N between 35W and 42W. Seas 12 ft or greater are north of 25N between 37W and 44W with peak seas to 16 ft. The low pressure will drift ENE today. Gale force winds will continue this afternoon until the low weakens this evening. Seas will begin to diminish this evening. Winds will decrease below 25 kt and seas will subside below 12 ft on Mon. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The ITCZ extends from 06N11W to 07N30W. Two surface troughs are west of the terminus of the ITCZ; the first is along 33W from 03N to 12N and the second is along 38W from 04N to 10N. Scatterometer data this morning showed fresh trades from 08N to 13N between 31W and 39W. The data also showed strong to near-gale force trades from 08N to 12N between 33W and 35W. Seas are 8-9 ft. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 10N between 28W and 40W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 1500 UTC, a cold front extends from Panama City, Florida to Heroica Veracruz, Mexico. Doppler radar in Tampa Bay and Tallahassee show scattered moderate convection along the frontal boundary. Visible satellite indicates that the scattered moderate convection is also along the remainder of the front out of range of radar. In the SW Gulf within 90 nm of the coast of Veracruz, Mexico, NE winds are strong to near-gale force with building seas of 7 ft. Elsewhere in the Gulf, winds are moderate to locally fresh and seas are 3-6 ft. For the forecast, the cold front will reach from Apalachicola, FL to the western Bay of Campeche this evening, from Ft. Myers, FL to the south- central Bay of Campeche Mon evening, and from west- central Cuba to the northern Yucatan Peninsula to the central Bay of Campeche Tue evening, before moving SE of the basin early Wed. Fresh to strong northwest winds are expected in the far SW Gulf near Veracruz, Mexico today through Wed. Moderate to fresh NE winds are expected Mon night through Tue night S of 25N becoming fresh N to NE winds Wed across all but NW portions of the basin. CARIBBEAN SEA... Subtropical high pressure over the Atlantic continues to force a tight pressure gradient with the Colombian/Panamanian Low. Fresh to strong trades continue across the central Caribbean, with highest winds in the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia. Seas are 8-11 ft from 10N to 17N between 72W and 81W. Moderate to fresh trades prevail in other sections of the basin with seas of 4-7 ft. For the forecast, the subtropical ridge will extend to the northern Caribbean through late Tue, maintaining fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas across the south-central and portions of the SW Caribbean through Tue night. Fresh trades and large NE swell are expected across the Tropical N Atlantic waters, to the east of the Lesser Antilles, today through Wed. A cold front is expected to move into the northwestern Caribbean early Wed, move SE, and reach from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by Thu. Fresh N to NE winds and building seas are likely behind the front. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES for information on a GALE WARNING near 30N38W. As mentioned in the gale warning section, 1014 mb low pressure is centered near 28N38W. Visible satellite and scatterometer wind data indicate the system is a mature Shapiro-Keyser Extratropical Cyclone. The occluded front extends from 27N41W to 31N37W to the triple point at 31N32W. (The triple point is where the occluded, cold, and warm fronts intersect.) The cold front extends from the triple point at 331N32W to 20N47W. A weakening stalled front extends from 20N47W to 20N58W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the fronts. Moderate to fresh NE winds and 8-11 ft seas are north of the cold and stalled fronts. A weak surface trough is along 64W from 18N to 28N. 1020 mb high pressure is centered between the Canary Islands and Cabo Verde. The subtropical ridge anchored north of the area continues to support gentle to moderate trades and 4-7 ft seas. For the forecast west of 55W, Fresh to locally strong E winds and rough seas in N swell prevail S of 26N and E of 65W will gradually subside through Mon. Strong high pressure centered E of Bermuda will shift SE and weaken into early next week, ahead of the next cold front that is expected to emerge off the coast of northeastern Florida early Mon. The front will reach from near 31N76W to Ft. Lauderdale, FL Mon evening, and weaken considerably as it reaches from near 31N58W to the northwestern Bahamas Tue evening. Another strong cold front is expected to move across the NW waters Wed and Wed night, progressing eastward into Thu. This front will be followed by strong to near-gale force NW winds north of 27N, with gale force winds possible north of 29N, and quickly building seas. $$ Mahoney