000 AXNT20 KNHC 031103 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Dec 3 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1050 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a 1013 mb low pressure system located near 29N39.5W and a strong high pressure system well east of Bermuda result in near gale to gale- force winds mainly north of 29N and between 38W and 43W. Seas are 16 to 17 ft to the northwest of the low. Seas greater than 12 ft dominate the waters N of 26N and between 37W and 46W. The low pressure will drift E today. Gale force winds will continue through this morning before the low begins to weaken this afternoon. As a result, seas will begin to subside by this evening. Winds will decrease below 25 kt and seas will subside below 12 ft on Mon. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is confined to the African continent. The ITCZ extends from 07N18W to 07N33W. A surface trough is analyzed along 34W from 04N to 16N. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 02N to 13N and between 25W and 37W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 0900 UTC, a cold front extends from Mobile, AL to south of Tuxpan, Mexico near 20N96.5W. Divergence aloft is sustaining a line of scattered showers and thunderstorms. This line is a bit ahead of the front in the NE Gulf, but the line is along the front over the SW Gulf. Tranquil weather conditions are seen in the SE Gulf. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds and seas of 3-5 ft are noted to the NW of the frontal boundary. Meanwhile, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 2-4 ft are present to the SE of the front. For the forecast, the above-mentioned front will reach from Apalachicola, FL to the western Bay of Campeche this evening, from Ft. Myers, FL to the south-central Bay of Campeche Mon evening, and from west-central Cuba to the northern Yucatan Peninsula to the south-central Bay of Campeche Tue evening, before moving SE of the basin early Wed. Dense marine fog is possible this morning near portions of the Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida coasts north of Siesta Key. Fresh to strong northwest winds are expected in the far SW Gulf near Veracruz, Mexico today through Wed. Moderate to fresh NE winds are expected Mon night through Tue night S of 25N becoming fresh N to NE winds Wed across all but NW portions of the basin. CARIBBEAN SEA... The Caribbean Sea remains under the dominion of a subtropical ridge centered well east of Bermuda that extends southwestward into the region. The tight pressure gradient continues to sustain fresh to strong winds across the central Caribbean Sea, locally near-gale force in the south-central Caribbean. Fresh trades prevail in the eastern Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere. Seas are 8-11 ft in the central Caribbean, highest offshore of Colombia. Seas are 5-7 ft in the eastern portion of the basin and 4-7 ft in the western Caribbean. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are noted from 14.5N to 18N between 80W and 84W. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between strong high pressure located E of Bermuda and relatively lower pressure in northern Colombia will maintain fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas across the central and eastern Caribbean through early today. The high will shift SE and weaken through Tue, leading to a gradual diminishing trend in winds and seas across the basin this afternoon through Tue. Fresh trades and large NE swell are expected across the Tropical N Atlantic waters, to the east of the Lesser Antilles, today through Wed. A cold front is expected to move into the northwestern Caribbean early Wed, move SE, and reach from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by Thu. Fresh N to NE winds and building seas are likely behind the front. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A Gale Warning is in effect near 29N40W. Please see the Special Features section for more information. A cold front extends from the gale center located near 29N39.5W to 26.5N38.5W to 20.5N45W, and continues as a stationary front to 20.5N58W. A warm front extends ENE from the low to 30.5N34W. Scattered showers are noted along and within 90 nm south of the stationary front. Scattered moderate convection is near the low pressure and warm front, north of 27N between 27W and 42W. Farther west, a surface trough is analyzed from 30N63W to 26N64W to 17N62W. Earlier scatterometer data showed fresh to strong NE-E winds north of the stationary front and east of the surface trough. Seas in these waters are 8-10 ft. The remainder of the SW North Atlantic is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge positioned well east of Bermuda. This 1026 mb high pressure supports mainly moderate to locally fresh winds and seas of 4-7 ft across the western Atlantic. In the rest of the tropical Atlantic, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned stationary front will weaken and dissipate tonight. Fresh to locally strong E winds and rough seas in N swell prevail north of the front and will gradually subside through tonight. Strong high pressure centered E of Bermuda will shift SE and weaken into early next week, ahead of the next cold front that is expected to emerge off the coast of northeastern Florida early Mon. The front will reach from near 31N76W to Ft. Lauderdale, FL Mon evening, and weaken considerably as it reaches from near 31N58W to the northwestern Bahamas Tue evening. Another strong cold front is expected to move across the NW waters Wed and Wed night, progressing eastward into Thu. This front will be followed by strong to near-gale force NW winds north of 27N, with gale force winds possible north of 29N, and quickly building seas. $$ Hagen