000
AXNT20 KNHC 022332
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Dec 3 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a low pressure
system located near a near 30N40W and high pressure to the NW of
the low center is producing an area of gale force winds in the 
NW quadrant of the low, particularly north of 30N between 40W 
and 43W with seas of 14 to 18 ft in N to NE swell. Seas greater 
than 12 ft dominate the waters N of 29N between 40W and 45W. The
low pressure will drift SE on Sun while gradually weakening. As 
a result, winds and seas will begin to diminish on Sun. Please 
read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the Sierra Leone/Guinea border
near 09N13W to 04N23W. The ITCZ continues from 04N23W to 03N32W.
A surface trough runs from 09N35W to 00N39W. Scattered moderate 
convection is E of the trough axis from 04N to 10N between 26W
and 35W. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 21Z, a cold front extends from SE Louisiana to near Tampico,
Mexico. Multilayer clouds, with possible showers are noted over
the NW Gulf. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are seen from SE
Louisiana to N Florida, including the Florida panhandle. Strong 
SW to W winds aloft support this convective activity. Gentle to 
moderate NW to N winds are noted per scatterometer data west of 
the front, with moderate to locally fresh southerly winds east of
the front. Seas are generally 4 to 7 ft.

For the forecast, the front will move slowly SE tonight, then reach
from the Florida Big Bend to the western Bay of Campeche Sun 
evening, from South Florida to the south-central Bay of Campeche 
Mon evening, and extend from west-central Cuba to the northern 
Yucatan Peninsula to the SW Gulf on Tue evening, before moving SE
of the basin early Wed. Fresh to strong northwest winds are 
expected in the far SW Gulf near Veracruz, Mexico from Sun 
through Wed. Moderate to fresh NE winds are expected Tue and Tue 
night S of 25N becoming fresh to strong N to NE winds Wed across 
all but NW portions of the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Strong high pressure N of the area combined with the Colombian 
low continues to support strong to near-gale force trades in the
south-central Caribbean with the strongest winds near the coast 
of Colombia. Scatterometer data confirmed the presence of these
wind speeds. Seas are 8 to 11 ft within these winds based on a
couple of altimeter passes. Elsewhere, mainly moderate trades are
observed with seas of 5 to 7 ft over the eastern Caribbean, and 
4 to 6 ft in the NW Caribbean, except in the lee of Cuba where 
seas of 1 to 3 ft are noted. Patches of low level moisture, 
embedded in the trade wind flow, are moving across the area 
producing isolated to scattered passing showers. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between strong high pressure
located NE of Bermuda and relatively lower pressure in northern 
Colombia will maintain fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas
across the central and eastern Caribbean through early Sun. The 
high will shift SE and weaken through Tue, leading to a gradual 
diminishing trend in winds and seas across the basin Sun through 
Tue. A cold front is expected to move into the northwestern Caribbean
on Wed, move SE, and reach from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras
by Thu. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is in effect near 30N40W. Please see the Special 
Features section for more information. 

A cold front extends from the gale center located near 30N40W to
21N50W to 20N61W. A shear line continues from 20N61W to 21N70W. 
Scatterometer data show fresh to strong NE to E winds north of 
the front and shear line. A few showers are along the frontal
boundary. Seas greater than 8 ft are NW of the cold front to a 
line from 31N50W to 27N60W. High pressure of 1028 mb located NE
of Bermuda near 34N56W follows the front, with a ridge extending
towards Florida, the Bahamas and the Greater Antilles. The remainder
of the Atlantic is under the influence of a 1023 mb high pressure
located NE of the Madeira Islands. Across the tropical Atlantic,
moderate to fresh trade winds prevail with seas of 4 to 6 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the above mentioned cold front 
will weaken and dissipate as it sinks slowly southward through 
Sun. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas in N swell 
prevail north of the front and will gradually subside through 
late Sun. Strong high pressure centered NE of Bermuda will shift 
SE and weaken into early next week, ahead of the next cold front,
that is expected to emerge off the coast of northeastern Florida
early on Mon. The new cold front will reach from near 31N75W to 
the northwest Bahamas and Upper Florida Keys Mon evening, and 
weaken considerably as it reaches from near 31N57W to the central
Bahamas Tue evening. Another strong cold front is expected to 
move across the NW waters Wed and Wed night, followed by strong 
NW to N winds and quickly building seas. 

$$
GR