000
AXNT20 KNHC 010835
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Dec 1 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0800 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea near 10N13W to 03N37W. The ITCZ stretches from 03N37W to 
00N45W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted
from 13N-20N between 20W-33W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

An approaching frontal boundary and divergence aloft result in
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the N Gulf of 
Mexico, especially near W Louisiana. No deep convection is noted 
elsewhere. The pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and 
lower pressures in the S United States support strong SE to S 
winds north of 26N and between 88W and 95W. Seas in these waters 
are 8-10 ft. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds and seas of 3-7 ft 
prevail in the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, fresh to strong SE return flow over the N Gulf 
will quickly weaken Fri as a cold front approaches the coast of 
Texas. The weak cold front should be located just offshore of the 
Texas coast Fri night, extend from Louisiana to Tampico by Sat 
night, reach from the Florida peninsula to the Bay of Campeche by 
Sun night, and finally move across the basin by Mon night. Fresh 
to strong NW winds should occur over the W Gulf following the 
front Sun through Mon. Looking ahead, quiescent conditions should 
prevail across most of the Gulf Mon and Tue. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The Bermuda High north of the region and lower pressures in NW 
South America sustain strong E tradewinds in the south-central 
Caribbean Sea. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft, with the highest 
seas occurring off NW Colombia. Fresh to strong easterly winds, 
along with seas of 4-7 ft, are noted in the north-central 
Caribbean. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and seas of 4-7 ft 
are found in the E and SW Caribbean. Moderate or weaker winds and
slight to moderate seas are prevalent in the remainder of the 
basin. Latest satellite imagery indicate that only shallow patches
of moisture are covering the Caribbean waters, supporting 
isolated showers. 

For the forecast, a strong Bermuda High north of the area 
combined with the Colombian Low will continue to support fresh to 
strong trades and moderate to rough seas across the central and E 
Caribbean through Sat night. As the high weakens and shifts 
eastward, the area of fresh to strong trades will diminish some 
from Sun through early next week. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N43W and 
continues southwestward to 23N63W, where it transitions into a 
shear line to 22N75W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is seen on satellite imagery within 60 NM of the front. 
Fresh to strong NE to E winds are found north of the 
front/shear line, along with seas of 6-9 ft. However, moderate or
weaker winds and seas of 3-6 ft are evident north of 28N and 
west of 60W. Farther east, moderate to fresh winds and seas of 
6-12 ft are present north of 23N and east of 30W, associated with
a 1005 mb low centered at 30N17W and a cold front extending from
31N13W to 18N36W. A broad subtropical ridge dominates the 
remainder of the tropical Atlantic, sustaining moderate or weaker 
winds and moderate seas.

For the forecast west to 55W, the cold front extending from 
26N55W to 23N63W will move southeastward across forecast waters on
Fri while weakening. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas
in NW swell will follow the front through Sat. As the Bermuda 
High weakens and shifts eastward, winds will diminish Sat night 
through Mon. Looking ahead, another cold front will move off the 
NE coast of Florida Sun night, reach from near Bermuda to the N 
Bahamas by Mon night, and dissipate over forecast waters by Tue 
night. 

$$
Delgado/Landsea