000 AXNT20 KNHC 292302 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Nov 30 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic offshore of Sierra Leone near 07.5N12.5W, then extends southwestward to 03.5N30W. The ITCZ continues from 03.5N30W to 00N46W. Scattered strong convection is noted from the African coast southward to the Equator between 00W and 08W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from the Equator to 08.5N between 12W and 30W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A broad surface ridge dominates the Gulf, centered on a 1027 mb high over southeastern Mississippi. Fresh NE to E winds are noted across the southern Gulf and into the Bay of Campeche, where seas have subsided to 6 to 9 ft. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are noted elsewhere south of 26N across the basin, with mainly gentle winds and 2 to 4 ft seas across the northern Gulf. A surface trough continues across the western Gulf from offshore of Tampico along 97W to the central Bay of Campeche. Fresh easterly low level flow continue to interact with this trough to produce scattered moderate showers and isolated thunderstorms along and E of the trough to 91W. For the forecast, winds and seas across the SW Gulf will continue to subside tonight through Thu a surface trough across the SW Gulf moves slowly W and inland across Mexico. High pressure across the Gulf coast states will shift E into the weekend, allowing strong return flow to set up across the northern Gulf starting early Thu, ahead of the next approaching front that will push off the Texas coast on Fri. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends from central Cuba to northern Belize. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds prevail in the NW Caribbean to the north of the front. Seas are 5 to 8 ft across this area. No significant convection is depicted in association with the front except for small clusters of thunderstorms along the front W of 84W. Late morning scatterometer data noted fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean between 70W and 82W, with the strongest winds occurring offshore Colombia. Altimeter data there showed seas up to 11 ft in the area of strong winds. Winds and seas have since diminished slightly. Seas elsewhere across the north central Caribbean are 4 to 7 ft. East of 70W, moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted. For the forecast, a weak Atlantic ridge over the eastern Caribbean Sea will continue shifting E, while the front remains stationary in the NW basin and weakens. This will decrease the coverage of fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean tonight and Thu. The large area of strong winds will return by Fri night as high pressure again builds over the area. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A pair of cold fronts are over the western Atlantic, extending from a large and developing hurricane-force low-pressure system across the NW Atlantic. The leading cold front extends from 31N52W to 24N70W, where it becomes stationary through central Cuba. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm ahead of the front, north of 26N. The second cold front extends from 31N60W to 27.5N76W. Moderate SW winds are ahead of the leading front, north of 29N. Moderate or less N winds are behind the boundaries, shifting to NE west of 70W. Seas are 3 to 6 ft behind the front W of 70W and 6 to 9 ft in building NW swell E of 70W. High pressure extends across the central Atlantic, anchored by a 1019 mb high near 29N44W. Light to gentle winds with seas 3 to 5 ft are noted under the influence of the high. In the eastern Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N22W to 21N37W. Fresh S winds are ahead, and W winds are behind the front with seas 4 to 7 ft. Light to gentle trade winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail for the remainder of the tropical Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 55W, the fronts will drift SE and continue weakening through the week. Moderate to fresh winds will develop within 210 nm behind the fronts Thu then become fresh to strong Fri, as the high pressure behind the fronts moves E of Bermuda. Seas will build to 8 ft and greater mainly NW of the second cold front tonight through Fri. $$ Stripling