000
AXNT20 KNHC 291817
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Nov 29 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic offshore of Sierra Leone 
near 08N13W, then extends southwestward to 02N33W. The ITCZ 
continues from 02N33W to 01N47W. Numerous strong convection is 
along the African coast from 00N to 10N and extends westward 
20W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from the Equator to 
06N between 23W and 37W. 

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad surface ridge dominates the Gulf, centered on a 1027 mb 
high over the lower Mississippi Valley. Fresh NE winds are noted 
in the Bay of Campeche, where seas are 7 to 11 ft. Fresh NE winds 
and seas of 5 to 7 ft are noted south of 25N across the basin, 
with mainly moderate NE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas across the 
northern Gulf. 

For the forecast, seas in the southern Bay of Campeche will 
continue to subside today. A low pres has dissipated across the 
western gulf, and a surface trough now prevails across the area. 
Strong return flow will set up across the northern Gulf by 
tonight ahead of the next approaching front that will push off 
the Texas coast on Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from central Cuba to northern Belize. 
Moderate to locally fresh NE winds prevail in the NW Caribbean. 
Seas are 5 to 7 ft across this area. No significant convection 
is depicted in association with the front except for some 
scattered thunderstorms offshore the Yucatan Peninsula. 

A recent scatterometer pass noted fresh to strong trade winds 
over the central Caribbean between 70W and 82W, with the 
strongest winds occurring offshore Colombia. An altimeter pass 
found sesa up to 11 ft in the area of strong winds. Seas 
elsewhere in this area are from 6 to 10 ft. East of 70W, 
moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted.

For the forecast, a weak Atlantic ridge over the eastern 
Caribbean Sea will continue shifting E today as the front stalls 
in the NW basin. This will decrease the coverage of fresh to 
strong winds in the south-central Caribbean today and Thu. The 
large area of strong winds will return by Fri night as another 
high pressure builds over the area. A stationary front stretches 
from Cuba to Belize with moderate winds and 7 ft seas behind it. 
The front will linger over this area before dissipating later in 
the week. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A pair of cold fronts is over the western Atlantic, extending 
from a low-pressure system north of our area. The leading cold 
front extends from 31N56W to 24N70W, where it becomes 
stationary, continuing to the southern Bahamas and central Cuba. 
Scattered moderate convection is ahead of the front, north of 
25N. The second cold front extends from 31N64W to 29N77W. 
Moderate to fresh SW winds are ahead of the leading front, north 
of 29N. Moderate or less NW winds are behind the boundaries, 
shifting to NE west of 70W. Seas are 4 ft or less. 

High pressure extends across the central Atlantic, anchored by a 
1019 mb high near 30N44W. Light to gentle winds with seas to 5 
ft are noted under the influence of the high.

In the eastern Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N24W to 
22N35W. Fresh S winds are ahead, and W winds are behind the 
front with seas 4 to 6 ft. Light to gentle winds and seas at 4 
to 5 ft prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold fronts will gradually 
dissipate through Fri morning. Moderate to fresh winds will 
persist behind the front today. Winds across the area will veer 
E to SE Thu night and Fri while becoming fresh to strong as the 
high pressure moves E of Bermuda. 

$$
Mora