383 AXNT20 KNHC 272300 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Nov 28 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front stretches across the southern Gulf of Mexico, from the Straits of Florida west- southwestward along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, then becomes stationary to the Mexican coast midway between Veracruz and Coatzacoalcos. Strong northerly winds to near 30 kt continue behind the front within 90 nm of the Mexican coast south of 24N, while fresh to strong NE winds are ongoing north of the front to 26N. Recent buoy observations and altimeter data indicate that seas are generally 5 to 8 ft north of the front between 24N and 28N, and are 8 to 12 ft across the SW Gulf, to the south of 24N. Gale-force northwesterly winds will develop across the waters offshore of Veracruz during the next few hours and continue across this area through Tue evening, then gradually diminish through Wed. Seas are expected to peak at 12 to 14 ft there Tue afternoon through evening. The front is expected to sink southward across the Bay of Campeche and dissipates inland across Mexico Tue night. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the Offshore Waters Forecast https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 09N13W to 02.5N32W. The ITCZ extends from 02.5N32W to 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from the Equator to 04.5N between 27W and 39W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the Gale Warning in the southwestern Gulf. Two cold fronts have merged across the southern Gulf this afternoon, and extend from the Straits of Florida west- southwestward along the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula then stationary to the western Bay of Campeche. Strong northerly winds to near 30 kt continue behind the front within 90 nm of the Mexican coast south of 24N, while fresh to strong NE winds are ongoing north of the front to 26N. Seas are 8 to 12 ft with the strongest winds off the coast of Mexico, W of 95W. Seas range 4 to 7 ft elsewhere behind the front. Scattered thunderstorms are noted in the Bay of Campeche and extend northward to 24N. Scattered light to moderate rainshowers are occurring elsewhere W of 94.5W. For the forecast, a cold front extends across the southern Gulf to the western Bay of Campeche and will meander through Tue before sinking south of the basin Tue night. A tight pressure gradient will support gale force winds across the western Bay of Campeche this evening through Tue night. Peak seas are expected to build to 12-14 ft Tue afternoon through evening. Conditions across the Gulf will then improve on Wed. Strong return flow will set up across the northern Gulf on Thu and Thu night ahead of the next approaching front that will push off the Texas coast late week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Weak high pressure extends across the central Atlantic to eastern Cuba, producing a large area of fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean south of 15N, where seas are 7 to 11 ft per afternoon altimeter data. Skies are mostly clear across much of the basin, with only isolated showers and thunderstorms noted across the southeast Caribbean and over the Gulf of Honduras. In the eastern basin, moderate easterly winds prevail with seas 3 to 5 ft. In the northwestern Caribbean, gentle to moderate winds are noted to the south of the Gulf of Mexico cold front, with seas to 3 ft. For the forecast, a weak Atlantic ridge will shift east as a cold front moves across the western Atlantic through Tue. Fresh to strong trade winds across the south central Caribbean will persist through Tue, then diminish in coverage by Wed into Thu. The cold Gulf of Mexico front will sink into the NW Caribbean tonight into early Tue and gradually stall from central Cuba to northern Belize by Tue night before dissipating later in the week. Brief fresh to strong NE winds can be expected behind the front across the Yucatan Channel Tue night. High pressure will shift eastward into the western Atlantic on Thu and act to freshen the trade wind flow across much of the basin Thu through Fri. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front has moved well off the Florida coast today, and extends from 31N72W southwestward across the NW Bahamas and through the Straits of Florida. Ahead and behind the front, fresh to strong winds are occurring north of 28N with seas to 8 ft east of the front and 6 to 7 ft west of the front. Across the rest of the western Atlantic, a weak ridge is beginning to slide eastward in response to the front. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds prevail with 4 to 6 ft seas. In the central Atlantic, a cold front extends from a 1010 mb low pressure near 35N38W to 24N48W then becomes stationary from that point to 24N63W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm ahead of the cold front, to the E of 48W. Gentle to moderate winds are ahead and behind the front with seas 6 to 7 ft around it. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere in this region with seas 4 to 6 ft. Farther south, a trough extends from 19N53W to 13N57W. A cluster of thunderstorms is noted east of the trough axis to 49W between 16N and 18N. Winds are moderate with seas to 8 ft. In the eastern Atlantic, a trough extends across the area from 30N29W to a low near 25N35W. No significant convection is associated with this feature. Moderate winds prevail along the southern periphery of the low within 30 nm of the low center. A second trough extends from 30N24W to 21N32W with no significant convection around it. Seas to 6 ft are noted between these two features. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the rest of the eastern basin with seas 5 to 7 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will reach from near 31N60W to central Cuba by Tue evening, and from 31N50W to eastern Cuba by Wed evening. The front will bring strong winds ahead of it through tonight, with moderate to fresh winds behind it through Wed. The front will briefly become stationary along 23N Thu as high pressure shifts E into the Atlantic behind it. Winds across the area will veer E to SE Thu night and Fri while becoming fresh to strong as the high pressure moves E of Bermuda. $$ Stripling