070 AXNT20 KNHC 251658 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Nov 25 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1650 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N11W to 04N31W. The ITCZ continues from 04N31W to the coast of French Guiana near 05N53W. Scattered moderate convection is along the monsoon trough from 02N to 06N east of 25W. Scattered showers are along the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... At 1500 UTC, 1013 mb low pressure is centered near 24N95W in the western Gulf of Mexico. A warm front extends from the low pressure to 26N90W to SW Florida. Moderate to fresh E winds and 5-8 ft seas are along and north of the frontal boundary across the northern Gulf waters. South of the front, SE winds are gentle to moderate with seas of 3-5 ft. For the forecast, the low and the front will continue to lift northward toward the northern Gulf today. A cold front will move across the basin Sun morning, reach from the Florida Big Bend to Veracruz Sun evening, and from near Fort Myers to the central Bay of Campeche Mon morning. Fresh to strong winds will follow this front, except in the SW Gulf where strong to near gale force winds are expected. The front will move southeast and south of the basin Tue night as high pressure shifts eastward along 30N. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered moderate convection is impacting the SW Caribbean, from the coast of Panama north to 11N between 76W and 82W. The latest satellite scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades in the central Caribbean, with gentle to moderate trades in other parts of the basin. Seas are 5-7 ft in the central and southwest Caribbean and 3-5 ft in the eastern and northwest Caribbean. For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds are expected across the eastern and central Caribbean sections through the next few days, while mainly gentle to moderate east to southeast winds will continue in the northwestern Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds are forecast in the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia, and in the Gulf of Venezuela Sun night through Wed night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The previous special feature for central Atlantic significant swell has been discontinued as conditions improve. However, 8-11 ft seas remain north of a line from 31N26W to 25N38W to 31N52W. Fresh to strong S winds, with localized areas of near-gale force winds, were observed by satellite scatterometer this morning from 26N to 31N between 27W and 33W. Winds and seas will continue to diminish tonight as the system moves further north of the area. In the western Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N73W to 28N77W, where a stalled front continues to West Palm Beach, Florida. Moderate NE winds are north of the front. Another cold front extends from 31N50W to 28N58W where a stalled front then continues to 25N66W. This cold front will move southeastward through Mon while dissipating, and this stationary front will also dissipate by Mon. A surface trough extends from eastern Cuba across the southern Bahamas. Except as noted above, light to gentle winds are north of 20N and gentle to moderate trades are south of 20N across the basin. Seas are 4-7 ft in open waters. For the forecast W of 55W, the western Atlantic cold front is forecast to move off the coast of northeastern Florida on Mon, reach from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas by Tue morning, then from near 31N56W to 25N70W, and as a stationary front to the central Bahamas and to northern Cuba by early Wed. The stationary front will lift back N as a warm front late Wed. Moderate to fresh winds are expected on either side of the front. $$ Mahoney