000 AXNT20 KNHC 242347 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Nov 25 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Atlantic Significant Swell: Large and long period swell continues in association with 1006 mb low pressure (AL90) centered near 28N39W. Seas 12 ft or greater are north of 24N and between 33W and 42W, with peak seas to 13 ft. The primary swell is from the north with a period of 10-12 seconds. The system will continue to move NE today, and will be north of the area by early Sat morning. 12-13 ft seas and fresh to strong cyclonic winds are forecast to impact TAFB waters through Sat with conditions improving Sat night. This system has a low change of acquiring some subtropical or tropical characteristics during the next day or two. The chance for subtropical or tropical development is likely to end by Sunday as the low moves over much colder waters. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 04N27W. The ITCZ continues from 04N27W to the coast of French Guiana near 04N51W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 120 nm on both sides of the monsoon trough, east of 24W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak 1014 mb low pressure is located in the Bay of Campeche near 22N93W. A warm front extends eastward from the low pressure to 23N85W, where a stationary front then continues to SW Florida. Scattered showers and isolated strong convection is present from 23N to 28N and between east of 90W. Moderate to locally strong easterly winds and seas of 4-7 ft prevail north of 23N, except for light to gentle winds and slight seas in the NE Gulf and Florida Straits. Moderate or weaker winds and slight seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, the front will lift north toward the northern Gulf through Sun. Then, a new cold front will then push across the basin Sun morning, extend from the Florida Big Bend to Veracruz Sun evening, and reach from near Fort Myers to the central Bay of Campeche Mon morning. Fresh to strong winds will follow this front, except in the SW Gulf where strong to near gale force winds are forecast. CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea sustain fresh to locally strong easterly trades in the south-central portion of the basin. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 3-5 ft are found in the north-central and eastern Caribbean. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent elsewhere. For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds are expected across the east and central Caribbean while mainly gentle to moderate E to SE winds will prevail in the NW Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds are forecast in the south-central Caribbean, near the coast of Colombia, and in the Gulf of Venezuela Sun night through Tue night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a Significant Swell Event. A cold front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N55W and continues southwestward to 26N71W. No deep convection is noted near this boundary. Moderate to locally fresh winds and seas of 6-9 ft are found north of the front. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-7 ft are evident south of 23N and west of 60W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail west of 55W. Farther east, a stationary front extends from 31N41W to 29N42W and a surface trough extends from 31N34W to 19N40W. Scattered moderate convection is noted north of 25N between 30W and 36W. Seas 8 ft or greater are north of a line from 31N29W to 15N47W to 23N55W to 31N47W. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are occurring north of 11N to 22N and east of 25W. Seas in these waters are 5-7 ft. In the rest of the tropical Atlantic, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front extends from 31N55W to 26N71W. The front will move SE through Mon while dissipating. A new cold front is forecast to move off the coast of NE Florida on Mon, and extend from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas by Tue morning, and from 31N56W to the SE Bahamas Wed morning. Moderate to fresh winds are expected on either side of the front. $$ Delgado