000
AXNT20 KNHC 241037
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Nov 24 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1040 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Long period northerly swell...

A frontal system N of the area, formerly connected to Invest AL90
located near 26N41W, continue to support long period northerly
swell over the subtropical central Atlantic waters. Currently,
peak seas are up to 14 ft in the vicinity of the Invest low,
however seas to 12 ft extend as far south as 22N between 33W and
49W. The low will continue a NE track today and lift N of the area
by early Sat morning. Seas to 12 ft, however, will move away from
the region Sat evening. This system could acquire some subtropical
or tropical characteristics during the next day or two. The chance
for subtropical or tropical development is likely to end by 
Sunday as the low moves over much colder waters. 

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea-
Bissau near 11N15W, to 06N19W. The ITCZ continues from 06N19W, to
04N30W, to 02N40W. 


GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from the Florida Straits to the 
eastern Bay of Campeche where a 1013 mb low is analyzed. 

For the forecast, the front will lift north today, bringing fresh
to locally strong winds in the northern Gulf through the weekend.
A new cold front will then push across the basin Sun morning, 
extend from the Florida Big Bend to Veracruz Sun night and from 
Fort Myers to the Bay of Camepeche Mon evening. Fresh to strong 
winds will follow this front with the strongest winds affecting 
the SW Gulf and potentially reaching gale force in the region of 
Veracruz Mon evening into Tue morning. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...



For the forecast, a subtropical ridge extending across the 
northern Caribbean will support moderate to fresh trade winds in 
the central and SW Caribbean through the middle of the upcoming 
week. Winds in the south-central Caribbean are forecast to pulse 
to strong speeds Sat night through Tue night. Gentle to moderate 
trades in the E basin will increase to moderate to locally fresh 
tonight and will continue the remainder forecast period. Otherwise,
gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail in the NW Caribbean 
through Tue. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the Special Features Section, for details about a 
long period swell event.

A cold front extends from 31N60W to 27N70W to the Straits of 
Florida, which is supporting moderate to fresh SW winds ahead of 
it to 55W. Invest AL90 is centered in the central subtropical 
Atlantic waters near 26N41W with a surface trough extending SW of 
the low to the Leeward Islands adjacent waters. 

For the forecast W of 55W, Invest AL90 will continue to support 
NE swell to the regional waters of Puerto Rico, and the Leeward 
Islands offshore waters, and rough seas to the waters E of 57W 
today. The cold front will move E of the area tonight. Otherwise,
a new cold front is forecast to come off the coast of NE Florida 
on Mon and extend from 31N58W SW to 26N70W by Tue evening and move
E of the area on Wed. Fresh to strong winds associated with this 
front will affect the northern offshore waters Mon into Tue.

$$
Ramos