000 AXNT20 KNHC 240551 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Nov 24 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...INVEST-AL90 and a Central Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning...Gale-force winds are weakening soon... A 1005 mb low pressure center, INVEST-AL90, is near 26N41.5W. A dissipating stationary front trails to the southwest of the low pressure center, toward the NE Caribbean Sea islands. A stationary front extends away from the low pressure center, beyond 31N38W. A surface trough is from 330 nm to 360 nm to the east of the frontal boundary and the INVEST-AL90 low pressure center, from 15N northward. The trough is along 31N35W 20N38W 14N43W 03N49W. Gale-force south to southwest winds, and sea heights that range from 11 feet to 13 feet, are from 20N to 31N between 35W and 46W. Expect also: winds 20 knots or less, and sea heights that range from 8 feet to 12 feet in N to NE swell, elsewhere from 19N northward between 37W and 68W, including in the Atlantic Ocean exposures and passages. Rough seas, in general, are from 15N northward between 40W and 60W. It is possible that this weather feature may become a subtropical storm or a tropical storm during the next few days. The primary swell direction has been from the north, with a period of 10 seconds to 12 seconds. The feature is forecast to lose its frontal characteristics gradually, while it moves northeastward. Its chances of development into a subtropical storm or into a tropical storm should end, by early in the next week, as the system moves into cooler waters. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 270 nm on either side of the surface trough from 06N to 12N, and within 120 nm to the east of the surface trough from 27N northward. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate, are elsewhere between 30W and 55W. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website, www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest Offshore Waters Forecast, at the website, www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea- Bissau near 11N15W, to 06N19W. The ITCZ continues from 06N19W, to 04N30W, to 02N40W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is within 90 nm to the south of the ITCZ between 20W and 23W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 07N southward from 40W eastward. Moderate to rough seas are from the ITCZ to 08N between 35W and 45W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front passes through 31N63W in the Atlantic Ocean, to the NW Bahamas. The front is stationary from the NW Bahamas, to the southernmost part of Florida that is just to the north of the Florida Keys, to just off the NW corner of the Yucatan Peninsula, to a 1013 mb low pressure center that is near 19N92W just to the north of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to locally strong, are to the northwest of the stationary front. A surface ridge passes through the Texas Gulf coast, to the northwestern part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Moderate seas are in the southern half of the Gulf, except for slight seas that are to the east of NE Mexico. Slight seas are in the rest of the Gulf of Mexico. Mostly moderate to some fresh NE winds are in the Gulf of Mexico. A stationary front extends from the Everglades National Park in Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche where a 1013 mb low is analyzed. The front will lift north by Fri, bringing fresh to locally strong winds in the northern Gulf through the weekend. A new cold front will then push across the basin Sun morning, extend from the Florida Big Bend to Veracruz Sun night and from Fort Myers to the Bay of Campeche Mon evening. Fresh to strong winds will follow this front with the strongest winds affecting the SW Gulf and potentially reaching gale force in the region of Veracruz Mon evening into Tue morning. CARIBBEAN SEA... One surface trough curves from Belize to 15N82W, and to 10N81W in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, just to the north of Panama. Precipitation: scattered strong is in the coastal plains/the coastal waters of SE Nicaragua. Rainshowers are elsewhere from Jamaica westward. A second surface trough is along 23N69W, through the Dominican Republic, to 13N71W just to the north of the Gulf of Venezuela. Precipitation: isolated moderate is between 64W and 80W. Isolated moderate is also from 15N southward between 60W and 70W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are in the eastern two-thirds of the area. Moderate or slower winds are in the rest of the Caribbean Sea. Moderate seas cover much of the eastern two-thirds of the area. The exception is for slight seas that are to the south of the Dominican Republic along 70W. Slight seas are in the rest of the Caribbean Sea. A subtropical ridge extends across the northern Caribbean. This will support moderate to fresh trade winds in the central and SW Caribbean through Mon night. Winds in the south-central Caribbean are forecast to pulse to strong speeds Sat night through Mon night. Gentle to moderate trades in the E basin will increase to moderate to locally fresh tonight through Tue night. Light to gentle variable winds will prevail in the NW Caribbean through early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the Gale-Force Wind Warning that will be ending soon. A cold front passes through 31N63W, to the NW Bahamas. The front is stationary from the NW Bahamas, to the southernmost part of Florida that is just to the north of the Florida Keys, to just off the NW corner of the Yucatan Peninsula, to a 1013 mb low pressure center that is near 19N92W just to the north of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is from 30N to 32N between 56W and 60W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is from 20N northward between 50W and 70W, and within 90 nm on either side of the frontal boundary in the Atlantic Ocean. A first 1020 mb high pressure center is near 26N57W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is between the SPECIAL FEATURES INVEST-AL90 low pressure center and frontal boundary, and the 31N63W-to-NW Bahamas cold front. A second 1020 mb high pressure center is near 29N26W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 13N northward from the 31N35W 14N43W surface trough eastward. Slight to moderate seas are from 20N northward from 30W eastward. Moderate seas are in the rest of the Atlantic Ocean. Moderate to fresh NE winds are from 10N to 20N from 30W eastward. Fresh southerly winds are to the northwest of 28N60W 31N51W. Moderate to fresh SW to W winds are from 26N northward between 60W and 73W. Moderate or slower winds are in the rest of the Atlantic Ocean. A low pressure is centered E of the area with a dissipating stationary front extending SW of the low to the northern Leeward Islands adjacent waters. This system is bringing rough seas to waters E of 63W, the regional waters of Puerto Rico, and the Leeward Islands offshore waters. As the system moves farther from the region, these seas will mostly subside by Fri night. Seas to 8 ft will linger along the Windward Islands through Sat night. Meanwhile, a cold front extends across the western Atlantic from 31N62W to the northern Bahamas near 26N77W then stalls across South Florida. SW winds ahead of the front and N of 28N have diminished to moderate to fresh speeds and extends to 55W. These winds and rough seas to 9 ft will continue to affect the northern waters through Fri evening when the front is forecast to move E of the area. Otherwise, a new cold front is forecast to come off the coast of NE Florida on Mon and extend from Bermuda SW to the central Bahamas Tue morning. $$ MT