000 AXNT20 KNHC 231050 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Nov 23 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1050 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Atlantic Gale Warning... In the subtropical central Atlantic waters, a stationary front extends from 31N42W to a 1004 mb low near 27N43W. Then, a cold front extends from the low SW to 17N50W where it transitions to a stationary front that continues to the northern Leeward Islands adjacent waters. An earlier scatterometer pass confirmed gale- force SW winds in the SE quadrant of the low. Rough seas in long period N to NW swell associated with the frontal system and low range between 8 to 18 ft. These seas covers approximately the waters N of 17N between 35W and 66W, highest in the vicinity of the low. The low will track SE today and tonight while it weakens and then it will move NE and N of the area on Sat. Gale force winds are forecast to end tonight, however strong to near gale force winds will accompany this low through Sat. This system could become a subtropical or tropical storm late this week or over the weekend while it loses its frontal characteristics and moves northeastward. The chances of subtropical or tropical development should end by early next week when the system moves over cooler waters. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website - www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest Offshore Waters Forecast to the west of 55W, at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for details about the gale-force wind warning. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 11N16W to 07N18W where the ITCZ continues to 04N30W to 03N43W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 03N to 08N between 27W and 41W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging continues to build in the wake of a cold front that this morning extends from Marco Island, Florida to the northern Yucatan Peninsula. Moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds follow the front S of 26N with locally strong winds still likely in the Bay of Campeche where rough seas to 9 ft prevails. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere N of 26N where seas are in the 1-4 ft range. For the forecast, the cold front is forecast to stall later this morning, and fresh to locally strong northerly winds and rough seas over the Bay of Campeche will diminish as well. The front will lift north by Fri, bringing moderate to fresh winds in the northern Gulf through the weekend. A new cold front will then push across the basin late in the weekend into early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... For the forecast, a nearly-stationary subtropical ridge reaching the northern portion of the basin will support the continuation of moderate to fresh trade winds in the central and SW Caribbean through Mon night. Fresh winds in the south-central Caribbean are forecast to reach strong speeds Sat night into Mon night. Gentle to moderate trades in the E basin will increase to moderate to locally fresh Thu night into Mon night. Light to gentle variable winds will prevail in the NW Caribbean the entire forecast period. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about an ongoing Gale Warning over the central subtropical Atlantic waters. A cold front extends from 31N72W SW to Boynton Beach. The frontal system and low pressure mentioned in the Special Features is bringing moderate NE to E winds and rough seas to 10 ft Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic offshore waters. For the forecast W of 55W, winds over Puerto Rico offshore waters will remain gentle to moderate today and seas will subside below 8 ft this evening. Fresh to strong winds offshore northern Florida will continue ahead and in the wake of the cold front. The front will reach from SE of Bermuda to the northern Bahamas adjacent waters by this evening and move E of the area Fri evening. As this cold front crosses the region, fresh to strong winds and rough seas will continue to impact the northern offshore waters N of 28N. Otherwise, a new cold front is forecast to come off the coast of NE Florida on Mon followed by moderate northerly winds. $$ Ramos