000 AXNT20 KNHC 221749 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Nov 22 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1001 mb low pressure centered near 30N47W and a cold front extends from the low to the Leeward Islands. The strong pressure gradient result in a small area of N gale-force winds, north of 28N and west of the front to 48W. Strong to near gale-force N winds are occurring north of 24N and west of the front to 57W. Seas in these waters are 12-20 ft. As this low tracks southeastward through tonight, gales and higher seas at 17 to 20 ft will also shift southeastward. This non-tropical low is forecast to move southeastward across the central subtropical Atlantic over warmer sea surface temperatures during the next couple of days, and environmental conditions are marginally conducive for this system to acquire tropical or subtropical characteristics. A subtropical or tropical storm could form by the latter part of this week or this weekend, as the system turns northeastward by the weekend. This system has a low chance of development in 48 hours and medium chance in 7 days. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend area to the eastern Bay of Campeche. Gale-force N winds and 12-15 ft seas are present at the southwestern Bay of Campeche, offshore from Veracruz, Mexico. By this evening, the cold front will stretch from near Fort Myers, Florida, to the northern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula, and gales will end offshore Veracruz by this afternoon. Strong winds and rough seas in the wake of the front over the western Gulf will subside tonight into Thu, when the front will stall from the Florida Everglades to the Yucatan Channel. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast, issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website - www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest Offshore Waters Forecast to the west of 55W, at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for details on both Gale Warnings. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains confined to the African continent. The ITCZ extends from 05N19W to 05N33W to 07N47W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 10N and between 25W and 45W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section above, regarding a Gale Warning offshore Veracruz, Mexico. A cold front extends from the Big Bend area of Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche. Stratocumulus clouds cover most of the Gulf of Mexico as a cold and dry continental airmass has filtered into the basin behind the aforementioned frontal boundary. A few showers are seen off southern Texas, while no deep convection is affecting the remainder of the Gulf. Fresh to near gale-force northerly winds are present behind the cold front, with the strongest winds affecting the waters south of 25N. Seas in the area behind the front are 6-12 ft. Ahead of the front, moderate or weaker winds and 3-6 ft seas prevail. For the forecast, a cold front extends the Florida Big Bend to the eastern Bay of Campeche. Gale force winds are ongoing off the coast of Veracruz, Mexico. By this evening, the cold front will stretch from near Fort Myers, Florida, to the northern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula, and gales will end offshore Veracruz by this afternoon. Strong winds and rough seas in the wake of the front over the western Gulf will subside tonight into Thu, when the front will stall from the Florida Everglades to the Yucatan Channel. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1008 mb low pressure is located near 12N78W. A surface trough extends from the low to the Leeward Islands, while the eastern Pacific monsoon trough passes through Costa Rica to the aforementioned low. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 12N to 16N and between 73W and 79W. No deep convection is seen in the rest of the Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds and seas of 4-7 ft are noted north of the surface trough and low pressure and east of 76W, including the Windward Passage. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are prevalent elsewhere. For the forecast, a weakening high pressure north of the basin is relaxing the pressure gradient across the north-central Caribbean. As a result, the strong winds south of Hispaniola will diminish this afternoon and become moderate by tonight. Moderate or less winds will prevail through the basin through Fri. Winds will pulse to fresh north of Colombia during the weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on a Gale Warning associated with a low pressure in the central subtropical Atlantic. The pressure gradient between the cold front over the eastern United States and a strong ridge in Nova Scotia result in fresh to near gale-force southerly winds north of 28N and west of 73W. Seas in these waters are 6-10 ft. No deep convection is noted in these waters. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 6-12 ft are present in the remainder of the SW North Atlantic, west of 60W. A cold front extends southward from the aforementioned low pressure in the Special Features to 22N50W, then southwestward to 20N55W, where it becomes a stationary front that continues to the Leeward Islands. Scattered moderate convection is seen north of 25N and east of the front to 40W. Fresh to strong southerly winds are found north of 20N and west of 35W. Seas in the area described are 8-12 ft. Meanwhile, in the northeast Atlantic, the pressure gradient between the high pressure SW of Ireland and low pressure in NW Africa result in fresh to strong northerly winds north off Morocco, along with seas of 7-10 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, low pressure centered E of the area with a cold front extending SW of the low to Leeward Islands is bringing fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas to waters E of 60W. These conditions will improve by tonight. However, large N swell associated with this system continue to impact Puerto Rico, the Lesser Antilles, and adjacent Atlantic passes through Fri. Meanwhile, fresh to strong winds offshore northern Florida will continue in advance of the next cold front pushing off the Florida coast today. As this cold front crosses the region through the end of the week, strong winds and rough seas will impact waters on both sides of the front, N of 28N. $$ Delgado