000 AXNT20 KNHC 221032 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Wed Nov 22 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1003 mb low pressure centered near 29N50W. It is generating gale-force north winds N of 28N between 48W and 55W. Seas are 17 to 21 ft in these gales, with a broader area of 12 ft or greater seas N of 23N between 47W and 63W. As this low tracks southeastward through tonight, gales and higher seas at 17 to 20 ft will also shift southeastward. As this low moves over warmer sea surface temperatures during the next few days, environmental conditions also appear conducive for this system to gradually acquire tropical characteristics. A subtropical or tropical storm could form by the latter part of this week, as the system continues moving eastward followed by a turn northeastward by the weekend. This system has a low chance of development in 48 hours and medium chance in 7 days. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front stretches from near the Florida Big Bend to the western Bay of Campeche. Gale-force northerly winds and 13 to 15 ft seas are present at the southwestern Bay of Campeche, offshore from Veracruz, Mexico. As the front pushes farther eastward, reaching from S of Tampa Bay to the eastern Bay of Campeche this evening, seas will subside and winds will fall below gale levels. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast, issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website - www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest Offshore Waters Forecast to the west of 55W, at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for details on both Gale Warnings. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The ITCZ extends west-northwestward from 04N17W across 07N35W to 10N49W. Scattered moderate convection is seen up to 90 nm on either side of the ITCZ. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section above, regarding a Gale Warning offshore Veracruz, Mexico. Behind the the cold that extends from N of Tampa Bay to the Bay of Campeche, fresh winds dominate the NE Gulf, with strong N winds over the western basin. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in the NE Gulf, 6 to 10 ft in the NW, and 10 to 14 ft in the SW Gulf. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and within 60 nm SE of the front in the NE Gulf. Over the SE Gulf, winds are light to gentle and seas are 2 to 4 ft. For the forecast, strong winds and rough seas in the wake of the front over the western Gulf will subside tonight into Thu, when the front will stall from the Florida Everglades to the Yucatan Channel. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The East Pacific monsoon trough passes through northern Costa Rica into the Caribbean Sea to a 1008 mb low north of Colombia near 13N73W. A surface trough then continues from this low to near the northern Leeward Islands. A cluster of moderate convection is noted NW of the low center, from 11N to 16N between 74W and 79W. Fresh to strong ENE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are found at the north-central basin, south of Hispaniola and at the Windward Passage. Winds are mainly gentle to moderate and NE across the rest of the basin, with seas of 2 to 4 ft. For the forecast, high pressure that has been building southward into the basin has started to weaken. This will relax the pressure gradient, allowing fresh to strong winds in the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola to diminish later today. Elsewhere, winds will be moderate or less through late week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on a Gale Warning associated with a low pressure in the central subtropical Atlantic. A cold front curves SW from this low to just NE of the Leeward Islands. N of 20N, scattered moderate convection is noted within 180 nm E of the front. Behind the front, winds are strong N of 23N and E of 65W, with mainly moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds elsewhere. Behind the front, seas are 8 to 11 ft N of 20N and E of 75W, with 5 to 7 ft seas farther W. N of the NW Bahamas and offshore N Florida winds have veered southerly and increased to fresh to locally strong as a cold front approaches from the SE United States. Ahead of the front, fresh to strong S winds prevail N of 23N and W of 40W. Seas in this area of higher winds are 7 to 10 ft. Farther east, modest high pressure centered near 22N35W is leading mainly light to gentle anticyclonic winds for most waters in the eastern basin, with seas of 4 to 7 ft. A surface through from 31N25W to 25N31W has some scattered moderate convection within about 30 nm of its axis. Moderate E trades dominate all waters S of 23N, with seas of 5 to 7 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, as low pressure moves SE away from the area, strong winds in the NE waters to decrease today and tonight. A broad area of 12 to 15 ft seas N of 22N and E of 65W will continue to propagate E, with seas falling below 10 ft by Thu. Large N swell associate with this system will impact the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and adjacent Atlantic passes through late week. Fresh to strong winds are developing offshore northern Florida this morning in advance of the next cold front that will push off the Florida coast later today. As this cold front crosses the region through the end of the week, strong winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft will impact waters on both sides of the front, N of 28N. $$ Konarik