000 AXNT20 KNHC 211048 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Nov 21 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: Low pressure is developing near 31N58W along a cold front that extends SW to the Mona Passage. Gale force N winds are developing along 31N just west of the center of the low, and these winds will continue to spread SE today. Seas in this areas have increased to 15 to 18 ft. This low will move SE through the northeastern waters through tonight, bringing gale force winds, with a broad area of strong winds on both sides of the front N of 23N and E of 65W. Very rough seas of up to 22 ft will accompany is area of strong to gale- force winds. As this low reaches warmer sea temperatures during the next few days, environmental conditions appear conducive for this system to gradually acquire tropical characteristics. A subtropical or tropical storm could form by the latter part of this week, as the system moves E of the area and then NE. There is a medium chance of formation for this system for the next 7 days. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front stretching from western Louisiana to just south of the Rio Grande will move SE and reach from the Florida Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche tonight, then across the far SE Gulf by Wed night. Strong to severe thunderstorms, with locally high winds and seas, will be along and just ahead of the cold front today for areas N of 28N. Strong N winds will follow the front, with gales developing offshore Veracruz this afternoon and continuing through Wed morning. Rough to very rough seas of up to 15 ft will accompany the gale force winds. Winds and seas will subside late Wed into Thu as high pressure settles in. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast, issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website - www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest Offshore Waters Forecast to the west of 55W, at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for details on both Gale Warnings. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The ITCZ extends west-southwestward from west of Guinea at 08N16W across 05N30W to 05N40W. Scattered moderate convection is noted near and up to 150 nm north of this feature. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section about a Gale Warning in southwestern Gulf. Besides the cold front and its related weather mentioned in the Special Features section, a broad surface ridge extends southwestward from northern Florida to south of Tampico, Mexico. Ahead of the front, fresh S winds have been increasing overnight across the basin, and seas are 3 to 5 ft. A band of strong thunderstorms extends along and 60 nm ahead o the cold front, N of 25N. For the forecast, the cold front will move SE through the Gulf today and Wed, then stall near the SE edge of the Gulf into Thu. As high pressure builds in its wake, winds and seas will subside by Thu. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A small and weak low pressure centered off the coast of Colombia is producing a cluster of showers and thunderstorms. Nearby dry air should prevent additional significant development of this system as it begins to drift slowly west during the next couple of days. This system has a low chance of formation in the next 48 hours and 7 days. A low pressure trough extends NE from the center of the low to near Puerto Rico, and the eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough stretches west from the low into Panama. Both of these features are inducing scattered moderate convection within about 60 nm of their axes. High pressure building in from the north is leading to fresh NE winds just south of the respective islands of the Greater Antilles, as well as nearby Atlantic passes. Otherwise, winds in the Caribbean are moderate or less. Seas are 2 to 4 ft, with locally higher seas where the fresh winds are occurring. For the forecast, high pressure building toward the Greater Antilles will lead to fresh to locally strong NE winds in the Windward Passage and just S of Hispaniola into Wed. Elsewhere, winds will be moderate or less into late week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section details on a Gale Warning. A cold front curves southwestward from a 1005 mb low east of Bermuda across 31N58W to the eastern Dominican Republic. Scattered moderate convection exists N of 23N within 120 nm E of the front. A stationary front arcs from 31N25W to 21N36W to 22N42W. Convection associated with this weakening feature has diminished early this morning. Aided by strong divergent flow aloft and abundant moisture, a surface trough is producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 08N to 20N between 19W and 30W, including the Cabo Verde Islands. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. Outside the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong NE winds extend behind the cold front W to 70W, then fresh E to SE winds dominate. Ahead of the front, N of 25N and W of 50W fresh SW winds are present, otherwise winds are gentle to moderate. Seas in the NE winds are 8 to 12 ft, with 5 to 8 ft seas elsewhere across the basin. For the forecast west of 55W, regardless of development of the low pressure in the Special Features section, northerly swell will lead to seas of 12 ft or greater E of 65W and N of 20N into late week. Fresh to strong winds will develop offshore northern Florida by Wednesday in advance of the next cold front. $$ Konarik