000 AXNT20 KNHC 191754 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun Nov 19 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Western Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning... A 1004 mb low pressure center is near 31N72W. A surface trough extends from the low pressure center, through the central Bahamas, to SE Cuba near 22N77W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is from 23N northward between 58W and 68W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 20N northward from 50W westward. Expect: near gale-force to gale-force southerly winds, and sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 15 feet, are from 25N northward between 60W and 67W. Expect: S to SW winds from 20 knots to 25 knots, and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 11 feet primarily in NE swell, from 21N to 25N between 60W and 69W. Elsewhere: winds 20 knots or less, and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 10 feet in NE swell, from 08N northward between 55W and 75W...including in the Atlantic Ocean exposures and passages. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website - www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest Offshore Water Forecast west of 55W, at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for more details. ...Significant Central Atlantic Ocean N Swell Event... Residual large northerly swell, that has been generated by an earlier northern Atlantic Ocean storm, will maintain sea heights that will range from 11 feet to 12 feet from 23N northward between 39W and 51W. Fresh to strong anticyclonic winds are from 25N northward between 32W and 55W. The swell is forecast to decay today, and the sea heights will be less than 12 feet also. Rough seas, in general, cover most of the areas that are from 07N northward from 70W eastward. An exception is for moderate seas to be to the south of the line 23N20W 14N27W 12N33W 08N38W 07N46W 07N58W. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website - www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains in Sierra Leone. The ITCZ starts at the coast of Sierra Leone, near 08N13W, to 06N20W 04N32W 02N40W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 13N southward from 43W eastward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 15N southward from 60W eastward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front passes through 31N78W in the Atlantic Ocean, to Lake Okeechobee in South Florida, to the SW Florida coast near 26.5N. The front is dissipating cold into the west central Gulf of Mexico near 24N93W. Rainshowers are possible throughout the Gulf of Mexico. Gentle winds, and slight seas, span the Gulf of Mexico. A dissipating cold front extends from SW Florida to near 24N93W. High pressure will build in its wake, with mainly gentle N winds over the basin today becoming E by tonight. Southerly return flow will increase to fresh in the western Gulf by late tonight. The next cold front will move off the Texas coast Mon night, with gales expected to develop over the west central and SW Gulf Tue through Wed. Seas are forecast to build to 14 to 16 ft over the SW Gulf by Tue night into Wed morning. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1008 mb low pressure center is near 16N80W. A surface trough extends from the low pressure center to the southern part of the Yucatan Peninsula. Precipitation: broken to overcast low level and middle level clouds, and rainshowers are from 76W westward from the monsoon trough northward. Moderate seas are from Nicaragua northward from 80W westward. Slight seas are in the SW corner of the area. The monsoon trough extends from a 1009 mb low pressure center that is near 13N75W, beyond Nicaragua, into the Pacific Ocean. A surface trough extends from the 1009 mb low pressure center to the Windward Passage. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is within 150 nm of the low pressure center in the SE semicircle. Scattered moderate to widely scattered strong also is from 13N to the Dominican Republic and to Puerto Rico between the Mona Passage and 73W. Moderate seas are in the eastern one-third of the area. Slight to moderate seas are in the central Caribbean Sea. Moderate seas are from 83W eastward. Slight seas cover the rest of the Caribbean Sea. Fresh SE winds are to the east of the surface trough that reaches the Windward Passage. Moderate or slower winds are elsewhere. The 24-hour precipitation totals in inches, for the period that ended at 19/1200 UTC, are: 1.09 in Bermuda, and 0.13 in Freeport in the Bahamas, according to the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables, MIATPTPAN. The pressure gradient between a ridge across the Yucatan Peninsula and northern Central America and a low pressure over the NW Caribbean supports and area of fresh to locally strong NW winds offshore eastern Honduras and NE Nicaragua that will diminish late this morning. A surface trough will remain over the central Caribbean into Tue night. A weak low could develop along the trough axis. Ahead of this trough, fresh S to SW winds are expected today offshore Colombia. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the western Atlantic Ocean Gale-force Wind Warning, and the central Atlantic Ocean Swell Event. A cold front passes through 31N78W, to Lake Okeechobee in South Florida, to the SW Florida coast near 26.5N. The front is dissipating cold into the west central Gulf of Mexico near 24N93W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 20N northward from 70W westward. Moderate to rough seas are from the Bahamas northward from 70W westward. Slight seas are from the Bahamas southward. A stationary front is along 31N26W 29N20W 27N47W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 20N northward between 20W and 50W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and widely scattered moderate, are within 180 nm on either side of 18N35W 24N25W beyond 31N21W. Fresh NE winds are from 19N to 26N between 32W and 44W, and from 08N to 18N between 34W and 60W. Moderate or slower wind speeds are elsewhere in the area. Low pressure of 1004 mb is located near 31N72W with a trough extending to eastern Cuba. E of this trough, an area of strong to gale force southerly winds are occurring N of 26N between 60W and 65W. The low will move N of area today, with the trough evolving into a cold front. As the low moves N of the area, S winds ahead of the front will diminish gradually, but fresh NW to N winds will develop NW of the cold front. $$ mt/gr