000 AXNT20 KNHC 181734 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Nov 18 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Heavy Rainfall and Flooding for eastern Cuba and Hispaniola: The remnants of Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two have emerged in the Atlantic out of the Windward Passage early this morning, and these remnants will race NE along the frontal boundary into early next week. However, numerous moderate to isolated strong convection remains over a broad area from 14.5N to 26N between 63W and 74W. A trailing surface trough will extend through the central Caribbean into Monday. Heavy rainfall from this convection is likely to produce flash flooding, along with mudslides in hilly terrain. More localized heavy rainfall may lead to urban flooding across portions of the Turks and Caicos, and the SE Bahamas. Please consult products from your local weather office. Significant North Swell in the Central Atlantic: Large north swell generated by an earlier storm at the north Atlantic has reached 18N in the central Atlantic between about 28W and 53W. Seas of 10 to 13 ft are noted north of 18N between 35W and 55W. This swell will gradually decay this weekend, with seas falling below 12 ft by Sun. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml latest Offshore Water Forecast west of 55W at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Guinea-Bissau coast then reaches southwestward to 09N17.5W. An ITCZ continues from 09N17.5W across 07N29W to 05N45.5W. Scattered moderate convection is present along the Monsoon Trough from 02.5N to 10N between the Sierra Leone coast and 19W and between 23W and 37W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak cold front extends from west of New Orleans, Louisiana to South Padre Island, Texas. However, no significant convection is associated with this front. Elsewhere, high pressure of 1019 mb centered over eastern Mexico is building eastward. Gentle to moderate N to NW winds dominate the basin. Seas are 2 to 5 ft. For the forecast, high pressure is building across the Gulf waters producing gentle to moderate N winds today, then E and SE winds Sun. Southerly return flow will increase over the western Gulf Sun night ahead of the next cold front which will move off the Texas coast Mon night into Tue. Gale conditions are likely in the wake of the front over the west-central and SW parts of the Gulf Tue through Wed with seas forecast to build to 14 to 16 ft. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details the heavy rain and flooding potential over Hispaniola and E Cuba. A weak low pressure of 1009 mb is centered near 19.5N85W and is producing no convection. The eastern end of the Pacific Monsoon Trough extends to the SW Caribbean and is producing a cluster of moderate convection. Fresh NW winds prevail to the W of the aforementioned surface trough, with fresh SE winds in the eastern Caribbean. Seas are 5 to 7 ft, except 3 to 5 ft in the NW basin. For the forecast, the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two have moved N of the region through the Windward Passage early this morning, and will accelerate farther away from the area today. A trailing surface trough will extend through the central Caribbean into Monday. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds are expected W of the trough and mainly offshore Nicaragua through tonight. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about gales and large north swell in the western and central Atlantic. Outside the areas mentioned in the Special Features section: Scattered moderate convection is noted within 200 nm of the NE Florida coast in association with a weak low pressure located near 30N77W with a frontal trough extending to western Cuba. No significant convection is elsewhere, but a stationary front extends from 31N29W to 31N62W. North of the frontal boundary, fresh to strong mainly NE winds dominate. To the south, mainly moderate trades prevail. West of 73W, mainly moderate to fresh winds prevail with fairly erratic directions due to various subtle features over the region. Seas of 8 to 11 ft dominate the waters north of a line from 31N21W to 12.5N60W, with 4 to 7 ft seas to the south. Except to the lower seas area SW of the Bahamas, where 2 to 4 ft seas prevail. For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned low will move N of area today with fresh NW to N winds behind the aforementioned frontal trough, and fresh to strong southerly winds ahead of the trough. The remnants of Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two have emerged in the Atlantic out of the Windward Passage early this morning, and these remnants will race NE along the frontal boundary into early next week. $$ KRV