000 AXNT20 KNHC 180613 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Nov 18 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two is centered near 20.0N 76.5W at 18/0300 UTC or 75 nm W of Guantanamo Cuba, and moving NE at 19 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Seas at 7 to 9 ft are found from near southeastern Cuba southward to near 16N. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring near the center over southeastern Cuba. This system remains disorganized and will move across southeastern Cuba tonight. Afterward, it will track northeastward across the southeast Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands on Sat before merging with a frontal boundary on Sun. Tropical storm conditions are no longer probable but additional rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 14 inches are still expected across portions of southeastern Cuba and southern Hispaniola through Sun. These rains are likely to produce flash flooding, along with mudslides in areas of hilly terrain. Additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches are also anticipated across Jamaica, the southeastern Bahamas, as well as the Turks and Caicos Islands. This rainfall may lead to flash flooding in urban areas. Swells generated by this system are expected to affect portions of Jamaica, Haiti, and southeastern Cuba through Sat. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the last NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory on this system at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A stationary front curves southeastward from a 1002 mb low southeast of the Carolinas across 31N71W to beyond 26N65W. Near-gale to gale southerly winds and seas of 13 to 15 ft are expected to linger north of 29N between 66W and 70W through Sat morning. Scattered moderate convection is seen north of 25N between 65W and 73W. As the low tracks northeastward across the northern Atlantic Sat afternoon and evening, a new cold front will form and extend south-southwestward from this low to near the southeast Bahamas. This should sustain strong to near-gale winds and rough seas north of 25N and east of 66W through Sat night. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and latest Offshore Water Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. Significant North Swell Event: Large north swell generated by an earlier storm at the north Atlantic has reached 23N in the central Atlantic, and 26N at the western Atlantic. Seas of 10 to 12 ft are persisting north of 23N between 30W and 55W, and north of 26N north between 55W and 66W. Seas are going to gradually subside starting Sat afternoon as the swell decays during the rest of the weekend. Moderate to fresh NE to SE winds are seen a both areas. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml latest Offshore Water Forecast west of 55W at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Guinea-Bissau coast then reaches southwestward to 07N17W. An ITCZ continues from 07N17W across 05N30W to 02N45W. Scattered moderate convection is present south of the monsoon trough from 02N to 09N between the Guinea-Liberia coast and 15W. Similar convection is found up to 180 nm north and 120 nm south of the ITCZ between 24W and 37W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough curves southeastward from near New Orleans to a 1008 mb low Cancun, Mexico then turns northeastward to beyond southern Florida. Widely scattered showers are occurring near these features across the central and eastern Gulf, including the Yucatan Channel. Gentle to moderate N to NW winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are evident for the central and eastern Gulf, including the Yucatan Channel and easter Bay of Campeche. A 1014 mb high just southeast of Corpus Christi, Texas dominates the western Gulf with light to gentle winds and 2 to 4 ft seas. For the forecast, the low currently near Cancun, Mexico should dissipate by Sat. The high near Corpus Christi, Texas will build across the area this weekend and produce gentle to moderate N winds on Sat. Then winds will veer to the E and SE on Sun. Southerly winds will increase over the western Gulf Sun night ahead of the next cold front which will move off the Texas coast Mon night into Tue. Gale conditions are possible in the wake of the front over the west-central and southwestern parts of the Gulf Tue through Wed with seas likely building of up to 14 to 16 ft. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two and heavy rainfall. A surface trough stretches southwestward from Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two across Jamaica to the southwestern basin near San Andres Island. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted near and up to 60 nm east of this trough. Farther east. convergent southerly winds are coupling with divergent winds aloft to trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms from 14N northward to Hispaniola. Moderate to fresh SE trade winds and seas of 6 to 7 ft are dominating the eastern basin. Moderate to fresh W to NW winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are found at the western basin, including the Gulf of Honduras. Outside the areas impacted directly by Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two, gentle to moderate SE to SW to W winds and seas at 3 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the basin. For the forecast, Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two or its remnants will move to 20.7N 75.3W Sat morning, 23.4N 71.3W Sat afternoon, 26.5N 66.0W Sun morning. It will become extratropical and move to 30.1N 60.8W Sun afternoon before dissipating Mon morning. As this system moves north of area on Sat, a surface trough is forecast to persist over the central Caribbean through Mon. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about Gales and large north swell at the western and central Atlantic. Outside the areas mentioned in the Special Features section: A stationary front stretches southeastward from 26N65W to near 23N48W, then becomes a cold front and turns northeastward to beyond 31N30W. Widely scattered to scattered moderate convection is present near and up to 140 nm north of this boundary. A surface trough runs northward from southeast Florida to a 1005 low off the northern Florida coast near 30N80W. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen west of 75W from the central Bahamas northward to 30N. Convergent southerly winds are combined with strong divergent flow aloft to produce numerous moderate to scattered strong convection from 20N to 25N between 66W and 70W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Moderate to fresh with locally strong SE to SW winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft are evident north of 20N and west of 70W, and also from 20N to 29N between 66W and 70W. Near the Canary Islands south of the cold front, gentle to moderate NNE to NE trades and seas of 8 to 12 ft in mixed large north swells are noted north of 23N between the northwest Africa coast and 30W. near the Cabo Verde Islands, gentle NE winds and seas at 4 to 8 ft are found from 08N to 23N between 20W and 35W. Further west, gentle to moderate with locally fresh ENE to ESE winds and 6 to 9 ft seas are seen from 06N to 20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle winds southerly and monsoonal winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 55W, as the 1002 mb low southeast of the Carolinas moves northeastward Sat afternoon thru Sun, winds and seas north of 25N across the western Atlantic should gradually subside. Seas south of 25N will remain rough through Mon before residual northerly swell finally decays further. $$ Chan