000 AXNT20 KNHC 162341 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Nov 17 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Invest AL98 is now Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two, which is centered near 15.7N 81.4W at 16/0000 UTC or 300 nm WSW of Kingston Jamaica, moving NNE at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing in the western Caribbean between 72W and 82W. On the forecast track, the center of the system is expected to move across Jamaica late Friday, southeastern Cuba early Saturday, and the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands on Saturday. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm on Friday. Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 16 inches across portions of Panama, Costa Rica, Jamaica, southeastern Cuba, and Hispaniola through Monday morning. Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds along the southeastern coast of Cuba, the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands. Swells generated by the disturbance are expected to affect portions of Jamaica, Haiti, and southeastern Cuba during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Ntermediate NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...Offshore Florida and N of Bahamas Gale Warning... A complex frontal system is off the SE coast of Florida, between Miami and Andros Island in The Bahamas, which is connected to a 1008 mb low near 25N79W. The pressure gradient between strong high pressure over the SE CONUS extending a ridge to the W Atlantic waters off the Carolinas, and low pressure associated with the frontal system is supporting gale force winds from 26N to 29N between 72W and 80W. Rough seas in the 8 to 18 ft range coincide with this area of very strong winds. Aside from these conditions, scattered showers are ongoing over the SW N Atlantic waters N and E of the Bahamas as well as across the Great Bahama Bank. The low will move NNE and move N of the area Fri evening carrying gale force winds on its path. Strong to near gale force winds and rough seas, however, will continue to affect the NE offshore waters through the remainder weekend. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...Significant N Swell Event... A storm system that is well to the north of our area is generating sea heights that range from 12 feet to 16 feet, from 28N northward between 44W and 63W. The seas will spread eastward and southward, reaching 26N between 35W and 55W by Friday morning. The maximum sea heights will build to 18 feet from 30N northward, from late today into Friday. The sea heights of 12 feet will drift mainly to the north of the area and to the east of 40W by Saturday morning. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The ITCZ extends from ...GULF OF MEXICO... An occluded front extends from 1006 mb low pres near 25.5N88W to 24N84W then cold front to the western tip of Cuba. For the forecast, the low will drift southward while weakening through Fri. Fresh winds across the NE Gulf will diminish tonight. High pressure will build across the area this weekend, with moderate or weaker winds and seas of 5 ft or less through the weekend. Southerly return flow will increase over the western Gulf ahead of the next cold front which will move off the Texas coast early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two. For the forecast, Twenty-Two will move to 15.7N 80.8W Fri morning, 17.0N 79.0W Fri afternoon, 19.2N 76.6W Sat morning, 21.9N 73.3W Sat afternoon, 25.3N 69.0W Sun morning, and become extratropical and move to 29.4N 64.5W Sun afternoon. Twenty-Two will change little in intensity as it moves near 38.0N 54.1W Mon afternoon. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the Offshore Florida and N of Bahamas Gale Warning, a significant N swell event in the north central Atlantic Ocean, and Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two. For the forecast W of 55W, Twenty-Two will move to 15.7N 80.8W Fri morning, 17.0N 79.0W Fri afternoon, 19.2N 76.6W Sat morning, 21.9N 73.3W Sat afternoon, 25.3N 69.0W Sun morning, and become extratropical and move to 29.4N 64.5W Sun afternoon. Twenty-Two will change little in intensity as it moves near 38.0N 54.1W Mon afternoon. $$ Ramos