000 AXNT20 KNHC 161801 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Thu Nov 16 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1740 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Offshore Florida and N of Bahamas Storm Warning... A 1006 mb low pressure center is near 26N79W, off the coast of SE Florida. A warm front connects to the low pressure center, and it continues to 25N75W. A stationary front continues from the 1006 mb low pressure center, to a 25N84W SE Gulf of Mexico triple point. An occluded front curves toward the 1006 mb low pressure center. A cold front extends from the triple point to 17N87W just to the north of the Gulf of Honduras. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 20N northward from 55W westward. This feature is not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone. Gusty winds and heavy rains are possible still in parts of the east coast of Florida, and in the Bahamas, during the next day or so. The low pressure center is forecast to be moving toward the NE, into the SW Atlantic Ocean. Expect rough seas, and winds to range from gale-force to near storm-force or storm-force, for the next 24 hours or so, from 25N to 29N between 74W and 80W. Elsewhere: expect 20 knots to 30 knots, and sea heights ranging from 9 feet to 12 feet, from 24N to 31N between 61W and 80W. The remainder of the area: winds 20 knots or less, and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 13 feet in NE swell, from 22N to 31N between 56W and 73W. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...INVEST-98L in the Caribbean Sea... A 1005 mb low pressure center is about 100 nm to the NE of NE Nicaragua. A surface trough extends northward from the low pressure center to NW Cuba. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is between 70W and 84W. The environmental conditions appear to be conducive for some more development of this system. It is likely for a tropical depression to form during the next day or two. The system is forecast to move northeastward, in the direction of Jamaica, Haiti, and eastern Cuba. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is enroute in order to investigate the system. This system is expected to produce heavy rains which are likely to result in flash flooding and mudslides in parts of the Greater Antilles, particularly in Jamaica and in Hispaniola, through this weekend. Anyone who has interests in Jamaica, Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands, should continue to monitor the progress of this system. It is possible that tropical storm watches may be required for some of these areas as early as this afternoon. The chance of formation into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is high. ...Significant N Swell Event... A storm system that is well to the north of our area is generating sea heights that range from 12 feet to 16 feet, from 28N northward between 44W and 63W. The seas will spread eastward and southward, reaching 26N between 35W and 55W by Friday morning. The maximum sea heights will build to 18 feet from 30N northward, from late today into Friday. The sea heights of 12 feet will drift mainly to the north of the area and to the east of 40W by Saturday morning. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains inland, in Guinea and in Senegal. A surface trough is in the coastal plains/the coastal waters of Africa from Senegal northward. The ITCZ is along 06N16W 04N34W 04N30W 05N47W. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the areas that are from 20N southward between 20W and 60W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is from 05N to 09N between 47W and 50W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 02N to 10N between 30W and 60W. Widely scattered to scattered moderate, and isolated to widely scattered strong, is from 03N to 15N between 58W and 65W, in parts of NE South America and in some of the islands of the SE Caribbean Sea. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A 1006 mb low pressure center is near 26N88W. An occluded front extends from the low pressure center to a triple point that is near 25N84W. A stationary front continues from the triple point, to the low pressure center that is off the coast of SE Florida, that is with the storm-force winds. A cold front extends from the triple point to just to the north of the Gulf of Honduras. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 26N northward from 84W eastward to 80W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers cover the rest of the Gulf of Mexico. Rough to very rough seas are in parts of the north central Gulf, and in much of the NE corner of the area. Mostly to some rough seas are in the rest of the central two-thirds of the area. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the eastern sections of the Gulf of Mexico. Slight seas are off the middle Texas Gulf coast. Expect strong to near gale-force NE-to-E winds, and rough seas, from 25N northward between 84W and 92W. Fresh winds are in the rest of the Gulf to the west of the low pressure center. Moderate or slower winds are in the SE Gulf. An occluded front extends from 1008 mb low pres near 26N88W to 25N84W then cold front to the western tip of Cuba. The low will drift southward while weakening through Fri. Strong to near- gale winds and rough seas will continue today across the NE Gulf. Marine conditions are expected to improve by the end of the week, with high pressure building across the basin this upcoming weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the INVEST-98L feature, and the potential for heavy rain in the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong easterly winds, and moderate to rough seas, are in the central one-third of the area. Moderate seas cover much of the rest of the Caribbean Sea, except for the slight seas that are within 60 nm to 120 nm from land. Fresh to moderate NE winds are in the eastern one-third of the area. Moderate or slower winds are in the rest of the area. The monsoon trough is along 10N74W in Colombia, to the INVEST-98L low pressure center, and then beyond Nicaragua and Costa Rica, and into the Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is within 90 nm on either side of the monsoon trough that is between 80W and 84W. The 24-hour precipitation totals in inches, for the period that ended at 16/1200 UTC, are: 0.51 in Freeport in the Bahamas; 0.40 in Trinidad; 0.15 in Nassau in the Bahamas; and 0.10 in San Juan in Puerto Rico, according to the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables, MIATPTPAN. Fresh to strong winds will prevail across the central Caribbean through late today. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located over the west-central Caribbean Sea have become a little better organized since yesterday. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some additional development, and a tropical depression could form over the next day or two while the low moves northeastward toward Jamaica, Haiti, and eastern Cuba. There is a medium chance of tropical cyclone development within the next 48 hours. Regardless of development, this system will produce areas of heavy rain, and locally gusty winds, over portions of the central and western Caribbean through the end of this week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the Offshore Florida and N of Bahamas Storm Warning, and a significant N swell event in the north central Atlantic Ocean. A cold front passes through the north central sections of the Atlantic Ocean, toward the 1006 mb low pressure center that is part of the SPECIAL FEATURES section, with the gale-force to storm-force winds. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 20N northward from 30W westward. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 20N northward from the cold front eastward, with a surface ridge. Fresh to moderate winds, and moderate seas, cover the rest of the Atlantic Ocean. A frontal boundary extends from 23N55W to low pressure off the coast of south Florida. Gale force winds with frequent gusts to storm force are occurring to the east of South Florida. The low will move NNE and move N of the area late Fri. Gale force winds will continue with this low. Another area of low pressure will move into the waters near the southern Bahamas Fri night, possibly as a tropical cyclone. This low will move NNE through the weekend, with gale force winds possible to the east of the low center. $$ MT/al