000 AXNT20 KNHC 161118 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Nov 16 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Offshore Florida and N of Bahamas Storm Warning: A 1006 mb low pressure system is centered near Key Largo, FL. A warm front extends eastward from the low to the central Bahamas, while a stationary front extends westward into the SE Gulf. Numerous showers and isolated tstorms are found west of 70W to the east coast of Florida. A scatterometer satellite pass from late Wed evening captured 34-42 kt easterly winds off SE Florida. Subsequent surface observations from the overnight hours suggest sustained winds up to 45 kt with frequent gusts to storm force are occurring to the east of South Florida through the northwest Bahamas, from 25.5N to 28N, and west of 77.5W. The low pressure is forecast to strengthen and move north-northeastward. The storm warning is forecast to end by this afternoon, but gales of 35-45 kt will continue is association with the low until it moves north of 31N Fri night. These winds will affect the area north of 25N and west of 65W though Fri. Seas of 12 to 13 ft are already occurring and are forecast to build to up to 20 ft by tonight to the north of the northwest Bahamas, and east of central Florida. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. Potential for Heavy Rain in the Caribbean Sea (Invest 98L): A 1007 mb low pressure system near 13N82W is producing numerous moderate to scattered strong convection from 12.5N to 18.5N and between 74W and 82W, including over Jamaica. Fresh to strong winds are likely associated with the deep convection. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for development of this system over the next day or two, and a tropical depression could form by this weekend as the system moves northeastward across the western and central part of the Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains that could result in flash flooding and mudslides over portions of the Caribbean coast of Central America and the Greater Antilles through this weekend. Interests in Jamaica, Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands should continue to monitor the progress of this system. There is a medium chance of tropical cyclone development within the next 48 hours. Significant N swell event: A storm system well north of our area is producing seas of 12-16 ft north of 28N and between 44W and 63W. Seas will spread eastward and southward, reaching 26N between 35W and 55W by Friday morning. Peak seas will build to 18 ft north of 30N late today into Friday. 12 ft seas will drift mainly north of the area and east of 40W by Saturday morning. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough continues to be analyzed inland over Africa. The ITCZ extends from 06N18W to 05N33W and to 06N47W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 05N to 10N and between 43W and 53W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A 1008 mb low pressure is centered near 27N88W. An occluded front extends from the low to a triple point at 25N85W. A cold front extends S from the triple point to the W tip of Cuba. A stationary front extends east from the triple point to a 1006 mb low pressure centered over Key Largo, FL. Scattered showers are noted over the NE Gulf. Strong to locally near-gale force winds prevail over the NE Gulf north of 25N and east of 91W due to the low pressure, where seas are 8 to 13 ft. Elsewhere, over the western Gulf, moderate to fresh N winds with seas 5 to 9 ft are present. For the forecast, the low will drift southward while weakening through Fri. Strong to near-gale winds and rough seas will continue through today across the NE Gulf. Marine conditions are expected to improve by the end of the week, with high pressure building across the basin this upcoming weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details on Invest 98L and the potential for heavy rain in the Caribbean Sea. Aside from Invest 98L, scattered moderate convection is noted just south of east-central Cuba. Isolated tstorms are noted in the far SW Caribbean, just offshore of western Panama and eastern Costa Rica. Scattered showers and tstorms moving from east to west are reaching the southern Windward Islands. This activity extends from 10N to 13N between 58W and 62W. Fresh to strong easterly winds prevail across the central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 7-9 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 5-7 ft are evident in the eastern Caribbean. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3-6 ft are prevalent in the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will prevail across the central Caribbean through late today. AL98 is a broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean Sea producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for development of this system over the next day or two, and a tropical depression could form by this weekend as the system moves northeastward across the western and central part of the Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, this system will produce areas of heavy rain, and locally gusty winds, over portions of the central and western Caribbean through the end of this week. There is a medium chance of tropical cyclone development within the next 48 hours. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the Offshore Florida and N of Bahamas Storm Warning and a significant N swell event in the north-central Atlantic. In the rest of the basin, a cold front extends from 31N41W to 25N50W to 22N64W, where it transitions into a stationary front that continuous to 24N76.5W. A few showers are noted near these boundaries. Fresh to strong northerly winds are occurring behind the cold front, as shown by an earlier scatterometer satellite pass. Fresh to strong SW winds and seas of 8-12 ft are found north of 28N and between 35W and the cold front. Fresh to strong E winds are found north of the stationary front, where seas are 9 to 11 ft. A narrow surface ridge with gentle winds and 5-7 ft seas extend along 26N35W to 22N56W. To the south, over the tropical Atlantic, fresh NE to E trades and 7 to 9 ft seas prevail from 06N to 18N and west of 35W. For the forecast, a frontal boundary extends from 23N55W to 1006 mb low pressure near Key Largo, FL. Gale force winds with frequent gusts to storm force are occurring to the east of South Florida. Gale force winds will continue with this low as it moves toward the NNE through Fri, affecting waters north of 25N and west of 65W. $$ Hagen