000 AXNT20 KNHC 151014 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Wed Nov 15 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A 1010 mb low pressure system is centered near 27N89W. A warm front extends eastward from the low to 27N84W, where a stationary front continues to SW Florida. A cold front extends southward from the low to the eastern Bay of Campeche. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present E of 90W. Strong to gale-force winds are captured N of 28N and E of 91W. Seas in these waters are 8-13 ft. The low will continue to move ENE through the week, gradually dragging the fronts across the Gulf waters. Gale force winds and rough seas will continue through tonight across the northern semicircle of the low. Offshore Florida and N of Bahamas Gale Warning: A complex low pressure system is expected to develop along a frontal boundary off the southeast coast of Florida Thu morning. A tight pressure gradient between strong high pressure to the NE and the broad area of low pressure center will support strong to near-gale force winds N of 27N and E of 70W beginning Thu. Gale force ENE winds are expected in the northern semicircle of the low, offshore central Florida and north of the Bahamas Thu afternoon and Thu night, supporting seas of 12-16 ft. Please, read the High Seas Forecast, MIAHSFAT2, at the following website, www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details on the gales. Potential for Heavy Rain in the Caribbean Sea: A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Caribbean is associated with a broad trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression could form late this week while the system begins moving northeastward across the western and central portions of the Caribbean Sea. Interests in Jamaica, Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, this system has the potential to produce heavy rains over portions of the Caribbean coast of Central America and the Greater Antilles through the end of this week. Very heavy rainfall over these areas may lead to flash flooding and dangerous mudslides. There is a medium chance of tropical cyclone development in the next 7 days. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains confined to the African continent. The ITCZ extends from 06N16W to 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection prevails from 03N to 08N between 32W and 41W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the ongoing gale warning for the NE gulf waters. A dry and stable airmass is found over most of the western Gulf, west of 90W. This is behind the cold front associated with the gale-force low described in the Special Features section. A modest pressure gradient support fresh to strong northerly winds W of 90W. The strongest winds are found in the SW Gulf, off Veracruz. Seas of 8-12 ft are occurring off Veracruz. Seas of 4-8 ft are noted elsewhere west of 90W. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are evident in the SE Gulf. Moderate to fresh SE winds and seas of 3-6 ft are noted in these waters. Meanwhile, light to gentle winds and seas of 4-6 ft prevail in the south- central Gulf. For the forecast, the gale low will continue to move ENE through the week, gradually dragging the cold front across the Gulf waters. Gale force winds and rough seas will continue through tonight across the northern semicircle of the low. Marine conditions are expected to improve by the end of the week, with high pressure building across the basin this upcoming weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the potential for heavy rain in the SW Caribbean. A surface trough is analyzed from NE Nicaragua to northern Yucatan Peninsula. Divergence aloft and abundant tropical moisture are helping to generate scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the western Caribbean, mainly W of 77W. Meanwhile, a dry airmass is suppressing deep convection in the remainder of the basin. A recent scatterometer satellite pass show fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the central Caribbean, with the strongest winds occurring off northern Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela. These winds sustain seas of 6-9 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-7 ft are noted in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will prevail across the central Caribbean through Thu. Outside of the Special feature low area, moderate to fresh winds and seas to 7 ft will prevail across the remainder of the basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the Gale warning currently in effect for the W Atlantic waters. A cold front extends from 31N44W to 23N73W, where it transitions into a stationary front and then continues to the NW Bahamas and SE Florida. Scattered showers are present near these frontal boundaries. The deepest convection is noted off eastern Florida. Latest satellite-derived wind data and surface observations indicate that fresh to strong easterly winds prevail west of 70W. Seas in these waters are 8-10 ft. The strongest winds and highest seas are occurring N of 24N and W of 73W. Another cold front has entered our area, extending from 31N58W to 28N69W. Fresh to strong winds and seas to 8 ft are noted N of this second front. Moderate to fresh winds and seas of 6-8 ft are noted elsewhere N of 23N and west of 30W. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge positioned W of Portugal. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics support fresh easterly trade winds south of 20N and W of 25W. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast W of 55W, high pressure will continue to build in the wake of the fronts N of the area today. This will support an area of strong to near-gale winds over the waters N of 25N and W of 70W beginning tonight. The special features low is expected to develop tonight near the northern Bahamas. The low move NE through the end of the week dragging a frontal boundary across the waters in its wake through the upcoming weekend. $$ ERA