000 AXNT20 KNHC 142358 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed Nov 15 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Gulf of Mexico Gale-Force Wind Warning... A stationary front extends from SW Florida, toward the north central Gulf of Mexico to a 1012 mb low pressure center near 26N91W. A cold front extends from the low to the central Bay of Campeche. The low pressure will continue to support gale force winds through tonight over the NE Gulf of Mexico, mainly north of 28N and east of 86W, with seas of 8 to 12 ft. Strong to near gale force E winds, with frequent gusts to gale force are expected in the NE Gulf through Thur as the low continues to move ENE. Marine conditions are expected to improve by the end of the week. ...GALE WARNING OFFSHORE FLORIDA AND N OF BAHAMAS... A complex low pressure system is expected to develop along a frontal boundary off the southeast coast of Florida Thur morning. A tight pressure gradient between strong high pressure to the NE and the broad area of low pressure center will support strong to near-gale force winds N of 27N and E of 70W beginning Thu. Gale force ENE winds are possible in the northern semicircle of the low, offshore central Florida and north of the Bahamas Thu afternoon and Thu night, supporting seas of 11 to 15 ft. The low will lift north of 31N by Fri, and will drag a cold front across the waters in its wake through the upcoming weekend. Please, read the High Seas Forecast, MIAHSFAT2, at the following website, www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details. ...The Potential for Heavy Rain in the Caribbean Sea... A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the southwestern Caribbean in the next few days. Environmental conditions appear favorable for additional development of this system thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week while the system begins moving northeastward across the western and central portions of the Caribbean. Interests in Jamaica, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, this system has the potential to produce heavy rains over portions of the Caribbean coast of Central America and the Greater Antilles towards the latter portions of this week. Very heavy rainfall over these areas may lead to flash flooding and dangerous mudslides. There is a high chance of tropical cyclone development in the next 7 days. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains inland, in Guinea. The ITCZ extends from 07N17W to 07N35W and to 07N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 11N between 35W and 46W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the ongoing gale-force winds in the NE Gulf. West of the cold front along 87W associated with the low pressure described in the special features section, moderate to fresh NW winds are noted, with seas of 5 to 7 ft, except in the extreme southern Bay of Campeche, seas are 7 to 9 ft. Outside of the gales, strong E to SE winds are noted offshore Florida and the N central Gulf states, where seas are 7 to 10 ft. Scattered moderate convection is noted over the NE Gulf, N of the stationary front. For the forecast, the low will continue to move ENE through the week, gradually dragging the cold front across the Gulf waters. Marine conditions are expected to improve by the end of the week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the potential for heavy rain in the Caribbean Sea. A surface trough is analyzed along the coasts of Honduras and NE Nicaragua. Along with plenty of tropical moisture and divergence aloft, the trough is inducing numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly from 12N to 22N and west of 77W. The rest of the Caribbean is under a dry airmass that is suppressing the development of deep convection. The pressure gradient between high pressures N of the area and lower pressures across northern South America support fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the central Caribbean. These winds are sustaining wave heights of 6-9 ft, with the highest seas occurring off northern Colombia. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades with 5 to 7 ft seas are over the eastern basin, and light to gentle winds with seas less than 3 ft over the NW basin. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will prevail across the central Caribbean through late Wed. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N44W to 28N60W where it becomes stationary. The stationary front continues westward to 25N70W, to the northern Bahamas, and to Key Largo, Florida. Fresh to strong northeasterly to east winds are found behind the front, along with seas of 6-9 ft, mainly north of 25N and west of 60W. Fresh to strong NW winds are behind the cold front, mainly north of 28N and east of 60W, where seas are 9 to 13 ft. The remainder of the area is dominated by a broad ridge, supporting gentle to moderate wind flow from 20N to the front, as well as over a majority of the eastern portion of the basin. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics support moderate to fresh easterly trade winds south of 20N, along with wave heights in the range of 4-7 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, the fronts will continue drifting E while weakening. High pressure will build in the wake of the front N of the area beginning on Wed. $$ Mora