000 AXNT20 KNHC 141028 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Nov 14 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A 1012 mb low pressure system is centered near 27N94W. A stationary front extends eastward from the low to southern Florida, while a cold front extends southward from the low to the Bay of Campeche. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed north of 25N and between 87W and 95W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured strong to gale-force winds to the NW of the low. Strong to near gale-force winds are present behind the cold front in the western Gulf and north of the stationary front in the northern Gulf. Seas in these waters are 8-12 ft. Gale force winds and rough seas are expected through Tue night across the northern semicircle of the low. Marine conditions are expected to improve by the end of the week as the low moves eastward. Please, read the High Seas Forecast, MIAHSFAT2, at the following website, www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details. Potential for heavy rainfall in the Caribbean Sea: A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the southwestern Caribbean in the next few days. Environmental conditions appear favorable for additional development of this system thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week while the system begins moving northeastward across the western and central portions of the Caribbean. Interests in Jamaica, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, this system has the potential to produce heavy rains over portions of the Caribbean coast of Central America and the Greater Antilles towards the latter portions of this week. Very heavy rainfall over these areas may lead to flash flooding and dangerous mudslides. There is a high chance of tropical cyclone development in the next 7 days. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 07N12W to 06N16W. The ITCZ extends from 06N16W to 06N56W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N to 14N and between 31W and 48W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning currently in effect for the northern gulf waters. The remainder of the Gulf experiences fairly tranquil weather conditions. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 3-6 ft are found in the SE Gulf waters. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent elsewhere. For the forecast, the gale low will continue to move ENE through the week, dragging the frontal boundary across the Gulf waters. Gale force winds and rough seas are expected through Wed across the northern semicircle of the low. Marine conditions are expected to improve by the end of the week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section above for details on the potential heavy rainfall event expected for parts of Central America and the Greater Antilles. A surface trough is analyzed along the coasts of Honduras and NE Nicaragua. Along with plenty of tropical moisture and divergence aloft, the trough is inducing numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly from 12N to 22N and west of 78W. The rest of the Caribbean is under a dry airmass that is suppressing the development of deep convection. The pressure gradient between high pressures N of the area and lower pressures across northern South America support fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the central Caribbean. These winds are sustaining wave heights of 6-9 ft, with the highest seas occurring off northern Colombia. A recent scatterometer satellite pass also show fresh to strong easterly winds in the eastern Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will prevail across the central Caribbean through late Wed. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N50W to 28N61W, then becomes stationary to 26N80W. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are found behind the front, along with seas of 6-9 ft. The highest seas are located north of the Bahamas. Fresh SW winds and seas of 6-8 ft are present north of 30N and between 43W and the aforementioned front. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a 1026 mb high pressure system near Madeira Island. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics support moderate to fresh easterly trade winds south of 20N, along with wave heights in the range of 4-7 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast W of 55W, the fronts will continue drifting E while weakening. High pressure will build in the wake of the front N of the area beginning on Wed. This will support an area of strong to near-gale winds over the waters N of 25N and W of 70W beginning on Wed. A broad area of low pressure will develop over the waters W of 70W the second half of the week, with the strong to near-gale force winds shifting to the waters N of 27N and E of 70W toward the end of the week. $$ ERA