000 AXNT20 KNHC 140554 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Nov 14 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0535 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A 1013 mb low pressure system is centered near 26N94W. A stationary front extends eastward from the low to southern Florida, while a cold front extends southward from the low to the Bay of Campeche. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed north of 25N and between 88W and 95W, and also east of the cold front. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured strong to gale-force winds to the north and west of the low. Strong to near gale-force winds are also present behind the cold front in the western Gulf and north of the stationary front in the northern Gulf. Seas in these waters are 7-11 ft. Gale force winds and rough seas are expected through Tue night across the northern semicircle of the low. Marine conditions are expected to improve by the end of the week as the low moves generally eastward. Please, read the High Seas Forecast, MIAHSFAT2, at the following website, www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details. Potential for heavy rainfall in the Caribbean Sea: A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the southwestern Caribbean Sea in the next few days. Environmental conditions appear favorable for additional development of this system thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week while the system begins moving northeastward across the western and central portions of the Caribbean Sea. Interests in Jamaica, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, this system has the potential to produce heavy rains over portions of the Caribbean coast of Central America and the Greater Antilles towards the latter portions of this week. Very heavy rainfall over these areas may lead to flash flooding and dangerous mudslides. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is confined to the African continent. The ITCZ extends from 05N15W to 06N35W and to 06N55W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N to 12N and between 25W and 50W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features section above for details on gale conditions impacting portions of the northern and western Gulf of Mexico. The remainder of the Gulf experiences fairly tranquil weather conditions. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 3-6 ft are found in the SE Gulf waters. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent elsewhere. For the forecast, a stationary front extends from 26N81W to low pres near 27N94W. A cold front extends from the low to 21N95W. The low will move ENE through the week, dragging the frontal boundary across the Gulf waters. Gale force winds and rough seas are expected through Tue night across the northern semicircle of the low. Marine conditions are expected to improve by the end of the week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section above for details on the potential heavy rainfall event expected for parts of Central America and the Greater Antilles. A surface trough is analyzed along the coasts of Honduras and NE Nicaragua. Along with plenty of tropical moisture and divergence aloft, the trough is inducing numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly from 12N to 18N and west of 77W. A few showers are also noted off eastern Yucatan. The rest of the Caribbean Sea is under a dry airmass that is suppressing the development of deep convection. The pressure gradient between a 1021 mb high pressure system off the Carolinas and lower pressures across northern South America support fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the central Caribbean. These winds are sustaining wave heights of 6-9 ft, with the highest seas occurring off northern Colombia. A recent scatterometer satellite pass also show fresh to locally strong easterly winds in the eastern Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will prevail across the central Caribbean through midweek. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the southwestern Caribbean Sea in the next few days. Environmental conditions appear favorable for additional development of this system thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week while the system moves northeastward across the western and central portions of the Caribbean. Regardless of development, this system has the potential to produce heavy rains over portions of the Caribbean coast of Central America and the Greater Antilles towards the latter portions of this week. There is a high chance of tropical cyclone development in the next 7 days. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from 31N52W to the NW Bahamas and SE Florida. Satellite imagery depict a few showers near the frontal boundary. Moderate to locally strong northerly winds are found behind the front, along with seas of 6-9 ft. The highest seas are located north of the NW Bahamas. Fresh to strong SW winds and seas of 6-8 ft are present north of 28N and between 40W and the aforementioned front. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a 1026 mb high pressure system near Madeira Island. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics support moderate to fresh easterly trade winds south of 20N, along with wave heights in the range of 4-7 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast W of 55W, a stationary front extends from 31N53W to 26N80W. Fresh to strong NE winds prevail NW of the front with seas to 10 ft. High pressure will build in the wake of the front N of the area by the middle of the week. This will support an area of strong to near-gale winds over the waters N of 25N and W of 70W the middle of the week. A trough will develop over the waters W of 70W the second half of the week, with the strong to near-gale force winds shifting to the waters N of 27N and E of 70W toward the end of the week. $$ DELGADO