000
AXNT20 KNHC 132259
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Nov 14 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A nearly-stationary front extends from the Florida Everglades WNW
across the Gulf of Mexico to a 1013 mb low pressure center near
25N94W. The front then continues southward from the low to the Bay
of Campeche. W of 90W and to the N and W of the front, strong N to
NE winds dominate, with gale winds developing in the NW quadrant
of the surface low. A midday scatterometer pass revealed a zone of
NE to E gales within about 90 nm of the Texas and Louisiana 
coasts. This area of gale winds, with a broader area of frequent
gusts to gale- force, will spread E near and north of the track 
of the low as it moves across the northern Gulf into mid- week. 
Seas of 8 to 12 ft will accompany the gales. Conditions will 
improve late this week as the low translates E of the area. 
Please, read the High Seas Forecast, MIAHSFAT2, at the following 
website, www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details.

...Western Caribbean Low Pressure...

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the SW
Caribbean Sea in the next few days. Environmental conditions
appear favorable for additional development of this system
thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this
week while the system begins moving NE across the western and
central portions of the Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development,
this system is likely to produce heavy rainfall over portions of 
the Caribbean coast of Central America and the Greater Antilles 
towards the latter portions of this week, particular over Jamaica,
Haiti, and the Dominican Republic. A broad area of numerous 
moderate to isolated strong convection already exists from 11N to 
18N, W of 77W, and this area of showers and thunderstorms is 
likely to expand in coverage and intensity as the week progresses.
Very heavy rainfall over these areas may lead to flash flooding 
and dangerous mudslides. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The ITCZ extends from 07N17W to 08N30W and from 07N36W to 04N42W
to 03N48W. A surface trough stretches from 10N16W to 05N16W.
Another surface trough is noted from 12N34W to 04N34W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 13N
between 31W and 38W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
05N to 11N between 25W and 31W and from 06N to 09N between 38W and
45W. 

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see Special Features section above for details on gales
conditions that will impact portions of the northern Gulf of
Mexico early this week. 

A nearly-stationary front extends from the Florida Everglades WNW
across the Gulf of Mexico to a 1013 mb low pressure center near
25N94W. The front then continues southward from the low to the Bay
of Campeche. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
present within 60 nm of the front that extends from the low. N of
25N and W of 88W, numerous moderate convection is present.

Moderate to fresh NE to E winds dominate the central and eastern
Gulf on both sides of the stationary front. In the western Gulf,
winds W of the front are strong and N with winds E of the front
moderate or less. Seas across the basin are 4 to 6 ft, with 6 to 9
ft seas in the far western Gulf, higher in the aforementioned gale
area.

For the forecast, low pressure will move ENE, dragging a frontal 
boundary across the Gulf waters. Gale force winds and rough seas 
are expected through Tue night across the northern semicircle of 
the low. Marine conditions are expected to improve by the end of 
the week. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

See Special Features section above for details on low pressure
likely to form in the western Caribbean later this week that may
lead to heavy rainfall over portions of Central America and the
Greater Antilles. 

Elsewhere, fresh winds dominate the central and eastern basin,
with an area of strong trades in the south-central basin, offshore
Colombia and western Venezuela. Winds in the western Caribbean are
moderate or less. Seas in the basin are 5 to 7 ft, except in the
central Caribbean where seas are 8 to 10 ft. 

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong winds will prevail 
across the central Caribbean through midweek. A broad area of low 
pressure is expected to form over the southwestern Caribbean Sea 
in the next few days. Environmental conditions appear favorable 
for additional development of this system thereafter, and a 
tropical depression is likely to form late this week while the 
system begins moving northeastward across the western and central 
portions of the Caribbean Sea. There is currently a high chance of
tropical cyclone development in the next 7 days. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from a 1012 mb low pressure center near
32N55W to the northwest Bahamas and to the southern tip of
Florida. N of this boundary, fresh NE winds prevail. A surface 
trough extends from near 27N68W SW through the SE Bahamas and into
the Windward Passage. Associated convection with these systems 
have diminished today, and the only areas of convection are 
depicted in the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section above. 

Surface ridging oriented along 28N is dominating much of the
basin, leading to mainly gentle winds N of 22N, with moderate to
locally fresh trades to the S. Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft across
the entire basin, but a recent altimeter pass depict seas of 7 to
10 ft behind the cold front in the SW Atlantic. 

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will continue moving 
eastward with fresh to strong winds NW of the front. High pressure
will build in the wake of the front N of the area by the middle 
of the week. This will support an area of strong to near- gale 
winds over the waters N of 25N and W of 70W the middle of the 
week. A trough will develop over the waters W of 70W the second 
half of the week, with the strong to near- gale force winds 
shifting to the waters N of 27N and E of 70W toward the end of the
week. 

$$
KONARIK/MORA