000
AXNT20 KNHC 131033
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Nov 13 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A 1015 mb low pres has developed near
25N96W. A stationary front extends from the low to 27N82W and from
the low to 18N94W. Gale force winds and rough seas are expected 
through Tue across the northern semicircle of the low affecting 
the Gulf States waters N of 25N. As the low moves away from the 
area by mid-week, weather conditions will gradually improve. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 09N14W
to 08N17W. The ITCZ extends from 08N17W to 08N31W. A surface 
trough is analyzed within the ITCZ and runs from 13N34W to 
05N34W. The ITCZ resumes W of the trough near 07N36W to 06N57W. 
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is on either side
of the trough covering the waters from 02N to 13N between 22W and
40W. 

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning for most of the coastal waters of the Gulf States N
of 25N. Please, see the Special Features section above for more 
information.

The low/stationary fronts are the main event across the Gulf 
waters. Abundant cloudiness, with embedded showers is noted across
much the Gulf in association with these features. An area of
fresh to strong NW winds and seas to 9 ft prevails across the 
western portion of the Bay of Campeche, W of the southern portion
of the front. A ridge is building across the eastern slopes of 
the Sierra Madre mountains in Mexico in the wake of the front. The
remainder of the basin is experiencing moderate to locally strong
NE to E winds with seas of 3 to 5 ft. 

For the forecast, as previously mentioned, the low will move 
eastward over the northern waters, dragging the front eastward. 
The pressure gradient between the low and a strengthening ridge 
over the E United States will support fresh to strong E winds and 
building seas over the E Gulf through the middle of the week. 
Marine conditions are expected to improve by the second half of 
the week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is analyzed just W of the Lesser Antilles, along
62W. Scattered moderate convection is noted across much of the SW
Caribbean, mainly W of 80W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are 
noted per scatterometer data in the same area. A 1007 mb low 
pressure is over northern Colombia, along the eastward extension 
of the East Pacific Monsoon Trough near 10N75W. Scattered moderate
convection prevails within the low and monsoon trough mainly S of
11.5N.

The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the basin 
and the Colombian/Panamanian low supports fresh to strong trade 
winds across the central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh NE to E 
winds prevail in the NW and SW portions of Caribbean except S of 
the monsoon trough where mainly light to gentle winds are noted. 
Seas are 8 to 10 ft within the strongest winds. In the NW part of
the basin, seas are 4 to 7 ft. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure 
north of the region and low pressure over Colombia will continue
to support fresh to strong winds across the central Caribbean 
over the next few days. The area of high pressure will gradually 
shift eastward early this week, bringing a slight decrease in 
areal coverage of the strong winds through the week.

Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure is likely to form 
over the southwestern Caribbean Sea in a few days. Gradual 
development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression 
could form late this week while the system drifts northeastward 
across the western and central portions of the Caribbean Sea.
Currently, this system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone
formation through seven days.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N71W to the central Florida coast. 
Fresh to strong northerly winds follow the front, with seas of 8 
to 10 ft. High pressure is building behind the front. A surface 
trough is ahead of the front and extends from 28N71W to 24N72W. 
Light to gentle winds are noted on either side of the trough 
axis. Winds increase farther south just off Hispaniola and near 
the entrance to the Windward Passage where satellite derived wind 
data show fresh NE winds. Another cold front enters the forecast 
region near 31N47W, then continues westward to near 30N56W. A 
stationary front stretches from this point to a 1014 mb low 
pressure located N of area near 32N64W. A surface trough is
analyzed SE of this front from 31N35W to 23N47W. A surface ridge 
dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters. Light to 
gentle winds are under the influence of the ridge. Moderate 
trades are evident across the tropical Atlantic, increasing to 
moderate to fresh E of the Lesser Antilles. Seas are generally 4 
to 7 ft across the Atlantic, except 3 to 5 ft N of 22N and E of 
the Bahamas to about 55W.

For the forecast W of 55W, the westernmost cold front will continue
moving eastward with fresh to strong winds W of the front. High 
pressure will build in the wake of the front N of the area by the 
middle of the week. This will support fresh to strong winds over 
the waters N of 25N and W of 70W the middle of the week, with 
these winds shifting to the waters N of 27N and E of 70W toward 
the end of the week. 

$$
ERA