000 AXNT20 KNHC 130509 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon Nov 13 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A stationary front extends from near Tampa Bay, FL to the north-central Gulf near 27N90W to the central Bay of Campeche. An area of low pressure is forecast to develop along the front today. The low will move eastward over the northern waters, dragging the stationary portion of the front eastward as a cold front. The pressure gradient between the low and high pressure over the southern United States will support frequent gusts to gale force over the NW Gulf, including the coastal waters of the Houston/Galveston area through Monday night. Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous marine conditions. Fresh to strong NW to N winds are occurring in the wake of the front with seas of 8 to 10 ft. As the low moves into the north- central Gulf Tue, conditions in the NW Gulf will gradually improve. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea near Conakry and continues westward to near 08N17W. The ITCZ extends from 08N17W to 05N40W to 07N56W. A surface trough is analyzed within the ITCZ and runs from 13N32W to 05N33W. A recent scatterometer pass indicates the wind shift associated with the trough axis. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is on either side of the trough covering the waters from 03N to 11N between 20W and 41W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect for the NW Gulf including the coastal waters of the Houston/Galveston area. Please, see the Special Features section above for more. The stationary front is the main feature across the Gulf waters. Abundant cloudiness, with embedded showers is noted across much the Gulf in association with the front. A ridge is building across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre mountains in Mexico in the wake of the front. The remainder of the basin is experiencing moderate to locally strong NE to E winds with seas of 3 to 5 ft. For the forecast, as previously mentioned, a low pressure will develop today along the stationary front over the NW waters. The low will move eastward over the northern waters, dragging the stationary portion of the front eastward as a cold front. The low pressure center will move E of the area by the end of the week. Fresh to strong northerly winds will prevail west of the front along the coast of Mexico through the early part of the week. The pressure gradient between the area of low pressure and a strengthening ridge over the E United States will support fresh to strong E winds and building seas over the E Gulf through the middle of the week. Marine conditions are expected to improve the second half of the week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough is noted just W of the Lesser Antilles, along 62W. This system continues to generate some shower activity. Scattered moderate convection is noted across much of the SW Caribbean, more concentrated near Cabo Gracias a Dios Nicaragua. This convective activity covers the waters from 13N to 17N between 80W and 86W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are observed per scatterometer data in the same area. A 1007 mb low pressure is seen over the SW Caribbean, along the eastward extension of the East Pacific Monsoon Trough near 11.5N80.5W. The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the basin and the Colombian/Panamanian low supports fresh to strong trade winds across the east and central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds prevail in the NW and SW portions of Caribbean except S of the monsoon trough where mainly light to gentle winds are noted. Seas are 7 to 10 ft within the strongest winds. In the NW part of the basin, seas are 4 to 7 ft. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the region and low pressure over Colombia will support fresh to strong winds across the central Caribbean over the next few days. The area of high pressure will gradually shift eastward early this week, bringing a slight decrease in areal coverage of the strong winds through the week. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure is likely to form over the southwestern Caribbean Sea in a few days. Gradual development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late this week while the system drifts northeastward across the western and central portions of the Caribbean Sea. Currently, this system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through seven days. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N73W to the central Florida coast. A few showers are noted along the frontal boundary. Fresh to strong northerly winds follow the front, with seas of 8 to 10 ft. High pressure is building behind the front. A surface trough is ahead of the front and extends from 27N71W to 22N73W. Light to gentle winds are seen on either side of the trough axis. Winds increase farther south just off Hispaniola and near the entrance to the Windward Passage where satellite derived wind data show fresh to locally strong E winds. Another cold front enters the forecast region near 31N48W, then continues westward to near 30N60W. A stationary front stretches from this point to a 1015 mb low pressure located N of area near 33N70W. A ridge dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters. Light to gentle winds are under the influence of the ridge. Mainly moderate trades are evident across the tropical Atlantic, increasing to moderate to fresh E of the Lesser Antilles. Seas are generally 4 to 7 ft across the Atlantic, except 3 to 5 ft N of 22N and E of the Bahamas to about 55W. For the forecast W of 55W, the westernmost cold front will continue moving eastward with fresh to strong winds W of the front. High pressure will build in the wake of the front N of the area by the middle of the week. This will support fresh to strong winds over the waters N of 25N and W of 70W the middle of the week, with these winds shifting to the waters N of 27N and E of 70W toward the end of the week. $$ GR