000 AXNT20 KNHC 120514 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Nov 12 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0400 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W, the continues westward to near 06N27W. The ITCZ stretches from 06N27W to 06N40W then extends along the coasts of French Guiana and Suriname to near 06N57W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 06N to 09N between 25W and 31W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front remains over the Gulf waters and extends from northern Florida to the N-central Gulf near 27N90W to Veracruz, Mexico. A band of multilayer clouds with embedded showers is related to the front. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds prevail in the western Gulf behind the front. A recent altimeter pass indicate seas of 6 to 8 ft in the wake of the front S of 23N, an seas of 3 to 5 ft elsewhere W of the front. Moderate to locally fresh E winds are in the Straits of Florida with seas of 3 to 5 ft. The remainder of the Gulf of Mexico is experiencing mainly gentle winds generally out of the NE to E and 2 to 4 ft seas. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing in the Bay of Campeche. A surface trough is analyzed just W of the Yucatan peninsula. For the forecast, the aforementioned front will start to gradually move southward on Sun. Fresh to strong northerly winds will prevail west of the front along the coast of Mexico through early next week. A strengthening ridge over the SE United States may support fresh to strong NE winds and building seas over the E Gulf early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough is over the eastern Caribbean and extends from near Guadeloupe to NE Venezuela generating some shower activity. A recent ASCAT pass indicates the wind shift associated with the trough, with fresh to strong E to SE winds. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are over the SW Caribbean, mainly S of 12N between 77W and 80W. Showers and thunderstorms are also noted over parts of Costa Rica and Panama likely associated with the eastern extension of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are observed over the central Caribbean affecting parts of Hispaniola, eastern Cuba and Jamaica. A diffluent pattern aloft on the W side of an upper-level trough, that extends from Hispaniola to the SW Caribbean, supports this convective activity. Recent satellite derived winds data provide observations of fresh to strong trades over the central Caribbean as a result of the pressure gradient between the subtropical Atlantic high pressure and low pressure in the SW Caribbean. Seas are 8 to 10 ft within these winds. Trades are fresh in the remainder of the eastern Caribbean, and moderate to fresh in the western Caribbean. Seas are generally 6 to 8 ft elsewhere across the east and central Caribbean with seas of 3 to 5 ft in NW Caribbean. Fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 6 to 7 ft are in the Windward Passage. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the region and low pressure over Colombia will support fresh to strong winds across the central Caribbean and the Windward Passage through the weekend. The area of high pressure will gradually shift eastward this weekend, bringing a slight decrease in areal coverage of the strong winds. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure is forecast to form in the southwestern Caribbean Sea around the middle of next week. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form late next week as the system drifts northeastward in the Caribbean Sea. Currently, this system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure dominates most of the Atlantic forecast region. A stationary front is just off NE Florida. Light to gentle winds are along the ridge axis N of 24N while mainly moderate to locally fresh trades are seen to the S. Some fresh winds are noted in the vicinity of the Lesser Antilles, including also the Windward Passage and offshore Hispaniola. Fresh NE winds are also present in the far NE Atlantic, between the Canary Islands, and near the coast of Western Sahara. Seas of 8 to 9 ft in N swell are north of 25N between 35W and 50W. Seas are 6 to 8 ft just E of the Lesser Antilles. Seas in the 6 to 8 ft range are noted across much of the waters E of 35W, with the highest seas associated with the strongest winds. For the forecast west of 55W, a ridge along 28N will shift eastward through the weekend. This will enable a cold front to move into the waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda early next week. Fresh to strong NE winds will prevail N of 27N and W of 70W Sun through Tue. Fresh to strong E winds will prevail over the waters N of Hispaniola, including the Windward Passage, through early Sun. $$ GR