255 
AXNT20 KNHC 111011
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Nov 11 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 09N13W then 
continues westward to 06N23W. The ITCZ stretches from 06N23W to 
07N52W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 08N 
between 18W and 31W. A surface trough is analyzed from 15N53W to 
09N54W. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the vicinity of 
the trough between 50W-60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from 30N86W to 22N97W. Fresh to strong
NW to N winds are noted in the wake of the front. Gentle to  
moderate NE winds are ahead of the front over the western half of 
the Gulf. A ridge prevails across the east and central parts of 
the basin. Light to gentle easterly winds are noted under the 
influence of the ridge with the exception of moderate to fresh E 
winds across the Straits of Florida. Seas are 3 to 5 ft W of the 
front and 1 to 3 ft elsewhere, except 4 to 5 ft in the Straits of 
Florida. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the Yucatan 
Peninsula and the eastern portion of the Bay of Campeche. 

For the forecast, the western portion of the above mentioned front
will begin to move southward this weekend reaching Veracruz, Mexico.
Fresh to strong northerly winds will follow the front over the 
western Gulf along the coast of Mexico through early next week. A
strengthening ridge over the SE United States may support fresh 
to strong NE winds and building seas over the E Gulf Mon and 
Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is over the NW Caribbean with axis along 86W and
S of 21N, generating scattered showers and thunderstorms W of 83W. 
Numerous showers and thunderstorms are over the SW Caribbean off 
the coast of Nicaragua mainly W of 77W. Abundant cloudiness, with
embedded showers and isolated thunderstorms, dominates the 
eastern Caribbean, including Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. An upper-
level trough extending from Hispaniola westward to the Gulf of 
Honduras supports all this activity. 

Fresh to strong winds are present in the central Caribbean with 
seas of 8 to 10 ft. Moderate to fresh trades and 3 to 7 seas are 
in the western and eastern Caribbean. Near 10N, satellite derived
wind data show the winds shift associated with the EPAC monsoon 
trough extending into the SW Caribbean. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure 
north of the region and low pressure over Colombia will support 
fresh to strong winds across the central Caribbean and the 
Windward Passage through the weekend. The area of high pressure 
will gradually shift eastward this weekend, bringing a slight 
decrease in areal coverage of strong winds. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure dominates the Atlantic forecast waters with a 1023
mb high located SE of Bermuda near 30N59W, and another center of 
1024 mb situated NW of the Madeira Islands near 33N17W. Mainly 
light to gentle winds are along the ridge axis. Moderate to fresh 
NE winds are noted near the coasts of Morocco and the Western 
Sahara as well as near the trough located E of the Windward 
Islands. Mainly moderate to fresh trades are along the southern 
periphery of the ridge, including just N of Hispaniola. Seas of 8 
to 10 ft in N swell are propagating across the central Atlantic, 
particularly N of 27N between 39W and 51W. Seas of 6 to 8 ft 
dominate most of the waters E of 35W while seas of 5 to 7 ft are 
noted over the tropical Atlantic. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the ridge of high pressure along 
29N will shift eastward through the weekend. This will enable a 
cold front to move into the waters between northeast Florida and 
Bermuda early next week. Fresh to strong NE winds will prevail N 
of 27N and W of 70W beginning on Sun through Tue. Fresh to strong 
E winds will pulse over the waters N of Hispaniola, including the 
Windward Passage through Sun. 

$$
ERA