000 AXNT20 KNHC 110519 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Nov 11 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W then continues westward to near 06N23W. The ITCZ stretches from 06N23W to 07N35W to 08N52W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 08N between 22W and 28W. Similar convective activity is from is from 10N to 13N between 49W and 56W. A surface trough is in this area and runs from 13N52W to 08N54W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from the western Florida Panhandle to just N of Tampico, Mexico. A wide band of multilayer clouds with embedded showers is related to the front. Fresh to strong NW to N winds are noted in the wake of the front by a recent scatterometer pass. Gentle to locally moderate NE winds are ahead of the front over the western half of the Gulf. A ridge prevails across the east and central parts of the basin. Light to gentle easterly winds are noted under the influence of the ridge with the exception of moderate to fresh E winds across the Straits of Florida. Seas are 3 to 5 ft W of the front and 1 to 3 ft elsewhere, except 4 to 5 ft in the Straits of Florida. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the Yucatan Peninsula and the NW Caribbean where a surface trough is analyzed. For the forecast, the western portion of the above mentioned front will begin to move southward this weekend reaching Veracruz, Mexico. Fresh to strong northerly winds will follow the front over the western Gulf along the coast of Mexico through early next week. A strengthening ridge over the SE United States may support fresh to strong NE winds and building seas over the E Gulf early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... As previously mentioned, a surface trough is over the NW Caribbean with axis along 86W, generating scattered showers and thunderstorms. A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce this convective activity. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are over the SW Caribbean just off the coast of Nicaragua. Abundant cloudiness, with embedded showers and isolated thunderstorms, dominates the eastern Caribbean, including Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. An upper- level trough extending from Hispaniola westward to the Gulf of Honduras supports all this activity. Fresh to strong winds are present in the east and central Caribbean with seas of 6 to 9 ft. Moderate trades and 3 to 6 seas are in the western Caribbean. Near 10N, satellite derived wind data show the winds shift associated with the EPAC monsoon trough extending into the SW Caribbean. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the region and low pressure over Colombia will support fresh to strong winds across the central Caribbean and the Windward Passage through the weekend. The area of high pressure will gradually shift eastward this weekend, bringing a slight decrease in areal coverage of strong winds. ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure dominates the Atlantic forecast waters with a 1023 mb high located SE of Bermuda near 30N63W, and another center of 1025 mb situated NW of the Madeira Islands near 34N19W. Mainly light to gentle winds are along the ridge axis. Moderate to fresh NE winds are observed near the coasts of Morocco and the Western Sahara as well as near the trough located E of the Windward Islands. Mainly moderate to locally fresh trades are along the southern periphery of the ridge, including just N of Hispaniola. Seas of 8 to 10 ft in N swell are propagating across the central Atlantic, particularly N of 28N between 42W and 55W. Seas of 6 to 8 ft dominate most of the waters E of 35W while seas of 5 to 7 ft are noted over the tropical Atlantic. For the forecast west of 55W, a ridge along 30N will shift eastward through the weekend. This will enable a cold front to move into the waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda early next week. This pattern will support fresh to strong E winds over the waters south of 23N through the weekend, including the approaches to the Windward Passage. Strong winds and building seas will follow the cold front over the waters west of 70W Sun night through Tue night. $$ GR