000
AXNT20 KNHC 100841
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Nov 10 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0830 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N15W to 08N25W. The ITCZ 
continues from 08N25W to 07N35W to 09N53W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 03N to 09N between 11W and 20W. 

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging anchored by a 1018 mb high over northern Florida 
is shift eastward ahead of a cold front starting to move into the
Texas coast waters. Gentle to moderate E to SE breezes and slight
to moderate seas are noted between the ridge and a weak surface 
trough over the southwest Gulf. No significant showers or 
thunderstorms are evident.

For the forecast, the cold front moving off the Texas coast into 
the northwest Gulf will reach from the Sabine Pass to near 
Tampico, Mexico by late Sat, then stall from near Panama City, 
Florida to about 90 nm off the mouth of the Rio Grande, then 
southward to Veracruz, Mexico. Fresh to strong northerly winds 
will follow the front over the western Gulf along the coast of 
Mexico through early next week. Looking ahead, a strengthening 
ridge over the SE United States may force fresh to strong NE winds
and building seas over the E Gulf early next week. 


...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A persistent surface trough extends from near central Panama to
near Swan Island. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted
within 60 nm of east of the trough. A scatterometer satellite pass
from earlier in the evening confirmed fresh to strong wind across
the central Caribbean. Buoy 42058 confirmed seas to at least 8 ft
in this area as well. This is due to enhanced trade wind flow
south of the ridge building north of the area. The scatterometer
data showed strongest winds in the approaches to the Windward
Passage, south of Cabo Beata on the coast of Hispaniola, off the
higher terrain of northeast Colombia, and in the Gulf of
Venezuela. Moderate trade winds and seas are noted elsewhere. 

For the forecast, little change through early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The Bermuda high continues to dominate the W Atlantic subtropical
waters with no significant convection, anchored by 1023 mb high
pressure centered near 31N63W. A recent scatterometer satellite
pass confirmed fresh to strong winds are noted south of 25N and 
west of 55W, across the southern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos 
Islands.. Seas are in the 5 to 7 ft in this region. Gentle to
moderate winds and moderate combined seas are noted farther north,
west of 55W.

Farther east, a weakening stationary front extends from 31N43W to
25N55W. Scattered showers are noted within 120 nm east of the 
front mainly north of 23N. Over the far eastern subtropical 
Atlantic, a 1026 mb high is centered near 33N21W. A tight 
pressure gradient supports NE fresh to strong winds N of 18N E of 
30W. Seas are in the 6 to 8 ft range over that area, including 
the Canary Islands.

For the forecast west of 55W, the ridge along 30N will shift 
eastward through the weekend, ahead of a cold front expected to 
move into the waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda early 
in the week. This pattern will support fresh to strong E winds 
over the waters south of 23N through the weekend, including the 
approaches to the Windward Passage. Looking ahead, strong winds 
and building seas will follow the cold front over the waters west 
of 70W Sun night through Tue night. 

$$
Christensen