000
AXNT20 KNHC 090453
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Nov 9 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0545 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of 
Guinea near 10N14.5W then curves southwestward to near 07N22W. 
The ITCZ continues westward from 07N24W across 07N35W to 10N49W. 
Scattered moderate convection is ongoing from 02N to 10N between 
the coast of Liberia and 44W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1018 mb high pressure centered over the east coast of Florida 
continue to support gentle to moderate E to SE winds basin-wide. 
Fair weather and slight seas prevail across the Gulf. 

For the forecast, weak high pressure centered over NE Gulf will 
shift east of the area tonight. A cold front will move off the 
Texas coast into the NW Gulf Fri morning. The front is then 
expected to stall from the Florida panhandle to just offshore of 
S Texas and extend southward to near Veracruz, Mexico on Sat 
morning. Fresh to strong N winds and building seas will follow 
the front, especially over the SW Gulf along the coast of Mexico 
from Fri night through Mon night. Looking ahead, a strengthening 
ridge over the SE United States may force fresh to strong NE 
winds over the E Gulf on Mon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A mid to upper-level trough is supporting scattered showers over 
the NE Caribbean while a another mid level trough moving over 
the central basin is generating scattered showers over the area. 
Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh trade winds are ongoing 
basin-wide, except for strong NE winds in the Windward Passage. 
Seas are slight, except moderate in the Windward Passage. 

For the forecast, the Bermuda High north of the area will be 
building tomorrow and Fri before it begins to gradually shift 
eastward through the weekend. This will allow increasing NE to E 
winds up to fresh or strong speeds in the Windward Passage and 
across the central Caribbean between Hispaniola and Colombia 
beginning tonight through early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Surface ridging dominate both the SW N Atlantic and the eastern
subtropical Atlantic waters. The ridge in the SW N Atlantic 
waters is supporting moderate to fresh NE winds S of 27N and W 
of 62W, except for locally strong winds in the approaches of the 
Windward Passage. In the eastern subtropical Atlantic, a strong 
pressure gradient against lower pressure over NW Africa continue 
to support a broad area of fresh to strong NE to E winds and 
rough seas extending from to 15N to 31N  and east to 32W. 
Otherwise, in the central subtropical waters, the tail of a cold 
front extends from 31N47.5W SW to 19N57.5W. Scattered moderate 
convection prevails ahead of the front to 43.5W and N of 22N. 
Fresh SW winds and seas to 9 ft associated with the front cover 
the region N of 29N between 41.5W and 49W.  

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda High will be building 
along 30N tomorrow and Fri before it begins to gradually shift 
eastward through the weekend. This pattern will support fresh to 
strong E winds over the waters south of 23N through Mon, 
including the approaches to the Windward Passage. Looking ahead, 
strong winds and building seas should follow a cold front 
expected to move over the waters between NE Florida and Bermuda 
on Sun and Mon.

$$
KRV