000 AXNT20 KNHC 082354 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Nov 9 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2350 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast the coast of Liberia near 10N14W then curves southwestward to near 07N20W. The ITCZ continues westward from 07N21W across 07N35W to 07N48W. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing from 02N to 10N between the coast of Liberia and 46W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A 1018 mb high pressure centered over northern Florida continue to support gentle to moderate E to SE winds basin-wide, except for locally fresh winds across the Florida Straits. Fair weather and slight seas remain across the gulf. For the forecast, weak high pressure centered over NE Gulf will shift east of the area tonight. A cold front will move off the Texas coast into the NW Gulf Fri morning. The front is then expected to stall from the Florida panhandle to just offshore of S Texas and extend southward to near Veracruz, Mexico on Sat morning. Fresh to strong N winds and building seas will follow the front, especially over the SW Gulf along the coast of Mexico from Fri night through Mon night. Looking ahead, a strengthening ridge over the SE United States may force fresh to strong NE winds over the E Gulf on Mon. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-level trough is supporting scattered showers over the NE Caribbean while a surface trough moving over the central basin is generating scattered showers over the offshore waters between Haiti and Jamaica. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh trade winds are ongoing basin-wide, except for strong NE winds in the Windward Passage. Seas are slight, except moderate in the Windward Passage. For the forecast, the Bermuda High north of the area will be building tomorrow and Fri before it begins to gradually shift eastward through the weekend. This will allow increasing NE to E winds up to fresh or strong speeds in the Windward Passage and across the central Caribbean between Hispaniola and Colombia tonight through early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Surface ridging dominate both the SW N Atlantic and the eastern subtropical Atlantic waters. The ridge in the SW N Atlantic waters is supporting moderate to fresh NE winds S of 27N and W of 62W, except for locally strong winds in the approaches of the Windward Passage. In the eastern subtropical Atlantic, a strong pressure gradient against lower pressure over NW Africa continue to support a broad area of fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas extending to 14N and 34W. For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda High will be building along 30N tomorrow and Fri before it begins to gradually shift eastward through the weekend. This pattern will support fresh to strong E winds over the waters south of 23N through Mon, including the approaches to the Windward Passage. Looking ahead, strong winds and building seas should follow a cold front expected to move over the waters between NE Florida and Bermuda on Sun and Mon. $$ Ramos