000 AXNT20 KNHC 061637 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Nov 6 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1635 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning E of 35W: The pressure gradient between the 1033 mb high pressure system over the Azores and lower pressures in NW Africa result in strong to gale-force NE winds in the Agadir and Tarfaya High Seas Marine Zones. Seas are currently peaking near 15 ft off Morocco and forecast to peak near 17 ft on Tue. Gale-force winds are expected to continue through at least 07/1200 UTC with severe gusts. Winds and seas will diminish late this week. For more details, refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed on their website https://wwmiws.wmo.int ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the tropical Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W and continues westward to 09N20W. The ITCZ stretches from 09N20W to 08N40W and to 10N58W. Interaction between the ITCZ and a broad upper level trough in the central Atlantic support scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 07N to 12N and between 26W and 40W. Similar convection is present from 07N to 13N and between 48W and 59W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... An expansive ridge over the NE United States extends southwestward into the Gulf of Mexico sustaining moderate or weaker E-SE winds and seas of 2-4 ft. No deep convection is noted in the Gulf. For the forecast, high pressure across the northern Gulf coast will support mainly gentle to moderate E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas across the basin through mid week. Looking ahead, the next front is expected to enter the NW Gulf Fri afternoon. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough in the Gulf of Honduras and plenty of tropical moisture support numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms off the coasts of Honduras and Belize. Farther south, the east Pacific monsoon trough enters the SW Caribbean through northern Panama and continues eastward to northern Colombia. A few showers are seen on satellite imagery near this trough. The remainder of the Caribbean Sea is under generally dry weather conditions. The weak pressure gradient across the basin sustain primarily moderate to locally fresh NE-E winds and 3-5 ft seas. For the forecast, scattered showers and thunderstorms off the coast of Honduras associated with a broad trough over the region will persist through today. High pressure building north of the area will support fresh northeast winds and 3 to 5 ft seas across the northwest Caribbean into Tue, and fresh northeast winds across the Windward Passage by mid week and the eastern Caribbean by late in the week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section on the Gale Warning for the Agadir and Tarfaya High Seas Zones. A surface trough extends southward from a weak 1010 mb low pressure near 31N72W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed ahead of the surface trough to 60W and north of 26W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that strong to gale-force southerly winds are associated with these storms. Mariners in the area should use precaution. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds are occurring behind the surface trough, along with seas of 4-7 ft. The remainder of the SW North Atlantic, west of 60W, is in a weak high pressure pattern that supports light to gentle winds and moderate seas. The central and eastern Atlantic are dominated by a strong high pressure system over the Azores. In the northeast Atlantic, a shear line is analyzed along 25N, between 15W and 35W. Fresh to strong NE-E winds are present north of the shear line, including the water passages of the Canary Islands. Rough seas are present north of the shear line. Satellite-derived wind data also depict fresh to locally strong NE winds from 15N to 23N and east of 25W. Seas in these waters are 7-9 ft. In the remainder of the tropical Atlantic, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast W of 55W, a trough extends from low pressure of 1010 mb low pressure near 31N72W southwestward to the NW Bahamas. Another trough extends from the low to 26N72W and to the southeastern Bahamas, and yet another trough extends from near 31N59W southwestward to 27N68W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms moving eastward are N of 26N between 60W and 81W. Moderate to fresh north to northeast winds are over the western half of the area. These winds will diminish into tonight as high pressure builds over the region in the wake of the troughs as they shift eastward through Tue. The high pressure will slide eastward and strengthen through Fri resulting in increasing trade winds to the south of 24N and east of the Bahamas, including approaches to Windward Passage, Thu through Fri night. $$ DELGADO