145 AXNT20 KNHC 051615 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun Nov 5 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1555 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Heavy Rainfall over northern Central America: A surface trough along the northern coast of Honduras and abundant tropical moisture continue to produce numerous moderate to isolated strong convection over the Gulf of Honduras. This activity is also impacting portions of the eastern Yucatan peninsula, Belize, northern Honduras and NE Nicaragua. More storms could develop inland this afternoon and evening due to the diurnal heating. The unstable weather conditions will persist through midweek. Flooding is already occurring across the region. Mudslides are likely in higher terrain areas. Refer to the local weather services for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau and continues southwestward to 07N27W. The ITCZ extends from 07N27W westward to 06N40W and to 07N55W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident on satellite imagery from 03N to 09N and east of 37W. Isolated moderate convection is observed from 03N to 10N and between 38W and 54W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure over the southern United States encompasses the Gulf of Mexico and allows for dry continental air to dominate the basin. This pattern suppresses the development of deep convection. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds and seas of 4-7 ft are prevalent over most of the Gulf. However, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 2-4 ft are found in the northern and western Gulf. For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient across the SE half of the basin will support moderate to fresh NE winds S of 25N through tonight. Seas to 9 ft across the Yucatan Channel will gradually subside today. Relatively tranquil marine conditions are expected from Mon onward as high pressure settles across the NE Gulf and dominates the region. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section about heavy rains impacting the western Caribbean and Central America. A few showers are found near the ABC islands and off northern Colombia. The rest of the basin is under a dry airmass that suppresses the development of deep convection. Moderate or weaker easterly winds and seas of 4-7 ft prevail across the Caribbean Sea. The highest seas are occurring south of Haiti and off NE Yucatan. For the forecast, a broad area of low pressure over Central America continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms across the Caribbean W of 82W. This active weather is expected to persist across the Gulf of Honduras through Mon. Fresh northeast winds and rough seas associated with a tight pressure gradient across the northwestern Caribbean will weaken Mon. Easterly trade winds will return to the basin Tue and become fresh across central portions Thu. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak cold front extends from a 1010 mb low pressure near 31N73W to SE Florida. Behind the cold front, moderate to fresh northerly winds and seas of 5-8 ft are present. Ahead of the front, a weak surface trough extends from 31N72W to the central Bahamas. A few showers are found north of 26N and between the trough axis and 66W. Weak high pressure dominates the remainder of the SW North Atlantic, sustaining moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. An upper level trough northeast of the Leeward Islands is forcing a surface trough in the vicinity and a few showers are seen on satellite imagery to the east of the Lesser Antilles. A strong high pressure system of 1033 mb is located west of the Azores and dominates the central and eastern Atlantic. A cold front enters the NE Atlantic through the coast of Morocco near 31N09W and continues westward to 28N61W and to 30N36W. A few showers are present near the boundary. A scatterometer satellite pass from a few hours ago captured fresh to strong winds behind the cold front. Wave heights of 12-19 ft associated with a significant northerly swell are found behind the cold front. The highest seas are occurring off Morocco. Rough seas are noted north of 22N to the cold front and east of 40W. Elsewhere in the central and eastern Atlantic, moderate or weaker winds and seas of moderate seas prevail. For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front extends from 31N74W to S Florida this morning, and will move SE and gradually dissipate across the central Bahamas on Mon. Fresh N to NE winds and large NE swell prevail today behind the front across the offshore waters of Florida, where seas are interacting with the Gulfstream. Expect winds and seas to diminish tonight. Relatively weak high pressure will settle in over the region from the NW early Wed through Thu and act to freshen trade winds to the S of 24N. $$ DELGADO