000 AXNT20 KNHC 050601 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Nov 5 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Heavy Rainfall over Central America: Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the low pressure system (Invest AL97) has moved inland near the Costa Rica-Nicaragua border. A surface trough reaches northward from AL97 to near 20N85W. Scattered heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring from northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras northward across the Gulf of Honduras to near 20N. These showers and thunderstorms should spread westward over Belize and the interior of Honduras and Nicaragua later today and tonight. Development of this system appears unlikely as it is over land but regardless of development, Heavy rainfall from strong thunderstorms could produce flash flooding, and mudslides in mountainous terrains. For additional information about this system, see forecast products issued by your local meteorological service. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... An ITCZ extends westward from west of Sierra Leone near 08N15W across 05N30W to 09N48W. Scattered to numerous moderate with isolated strong convection is seen up to 130 nm north, and 60 nm south of the ITCZ. A monsoon trough remains mostly over continental Africa. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering isolated thunderstorms near the coast of Panama and northwestern Colombia. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A dissipating stationary front across the Florida Straits and Yucatan Channel is maintaining widely scattered showers in both areas. A surface trough is causing similar conditions at the western Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, a broad surface ridge extending southward from a 1021 mb high over Mississippi is dominating much of the Gulf. Fresh to locally strong NE winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft are present at the south- central Gulf, including the Yucatan Channel and eastern Bay of Campeche. Moderate to fresh NE winds and 4 to 7 ft seas are found across the eastern, central and north-central Gulf, including the Florida Straits. Gentle to moderate NNE to ESE winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between the stationary front and surface ridge will keep strong NE winds and rough seas over the south-central and southeastern Gulf. In particular, seas are even rougher at the Straits of Florida due to interaction with the Florida Current. Winds will begin to diminish early Sun as high pressure begins to shift eastward and weaken through early next week. Seas across the southeastern Gulf and Straits of Florida will gradually subside through Sun. Relatively tranquil marine conditions are expected from Mon well into next week as high pressure remains over the region. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section about heavy rains related to Invest AL97 impacting the western Caribbean Basin and central America. An upper-level trough extends northeastward from near the ABC Islands to beyond the Leeward Islands. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are present near the ABC Islands and Windward Islands. Moderate to fresh ENE to E winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft exist across the northwestern, west-central and north- central basin. Light to gentle winds and 3 to 5 ft seas in moderate NE swell are evident at the southwestern basin. Gentle to moderate E winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the basin. For the forecast, active weather is expected to persist across the Gulf of Honduras through Sun. A stationary front over western Cuba and the Yucatan Channel will weaken tonight. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas associated with the front and surface trough mentioned in the Special Features section will prevail in the northwestern basin and Yucatan Channel through Sun night. Easterly trade winds will return to the basin on Wed. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A newly formed cold front curves southwestward from a 1013 mb low southeast of South Carolina across 31N76W to Fort Pierce, Florida. A dissipating stationary front extends southwestward from a 1013 mb low northeast of the northwest Bahamas at 29N75W to the Florida Straits. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring near these features north of 25N west of 68W. A couple of surface troughs are aided by divergent upper-level winds to generate scattered moderate convection from 10N to 26N between 45W and 57W. An upper-level low near 22N31W is triggering widely scattered moderate convection from 17N to 25N between 26W and 36W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are noted north of 27N west of 77W. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh NNE to E winds and 7 to 10 ft seas in large mixed swells are evident north of 10N between the Africa coast and 77W/Lesser Antilles, including waters near the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands. Light to gentle with locally moderate SE and monsoonal winds and seas at 4 to 7 ft in moderate mixed swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned stationary front will weaken over the northwest Bahamas offshore waters through Sun, then shift eastward as a weak trough through mid week. Fresh to strong NE winds and large NE swell prevail across the waters offshore of northeast Florida and Georgia where seas are interacting with the Gulfstream. Expect winds and seas north of the front to begin to diminish tonight. Relatively weak high pressure will settle in over the region Tue through Thu and freshen trade winds to the south of 24N. $$ Chan