000 AXNT20 KNHC 042316 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Nov 5 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Heavy Rainfall over Central America: Satellite data and surface observations indicate that the low pressure system (AL97) over the western Caribbean Sea is now located just off the coast of Costa Rica and Nicaragua. The associated showers and thunderstorms have become less organized during the past few hours, and development of this system appears unlikely before it moves inland over Central America tonight or early Sunday. Regardless of development, this system is expected to bring heavy rains to portions of Central America during the next couple of days. This rainfall could produce flash flooding, along with mudslides in higher terrain areas. For additional information about this system, see forecast products issued by your local meteorological service. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The ITCZ extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 05N30W and to 10N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within about 120 nm of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure over the SE of the United States extends a ridge across the Gulf region while a stationary front persists across the Straits of Florida and the Yucatan Channel to Cozumel, Mexico. Fresh to strong NE winds are observed in these areas and the remainder of the SE Gulf, with 6 to 8 ft seas, highest in the Yucatan Channel. Fresh northerly winds are also noted in the Bay of Campeche, with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds are observed elsewhere across the Gulf waters with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Scattered showers are near the frontal boundary. For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient N of a stalled front is producing strong northeast winds and rough seas over the southeastern Gulf and Straits of Florida, where seas are interacting with the Florida Current. Winds will begin to diminish early Sun as high pressure over the region begins to shift eastward and weak through early next week. Seas across the southeastern Gulf and Straits of Florida will gradually subside late tonight through Sun. Relatively tranquil marine conditions are expected from Mon well into next week as high pressure remains over the region. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section about heavy rains currently impacting Central America and the NW Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras where moderate to isolated strong convection is noted. This active weather is expected to persist across the Gulf of Honduras through Sun. Scattered showers are evident in the eastern Caribbean. Trades are moderate to fresh across the basin, with locally strong winds noted near the coast of Hispaniola. Seas are 4-7 ft across the basin, increasing to 8 ft in the Yucatan Channel due to strong winds in the SE Gulf of Mexico. For the forecast, the stationary front extending from the NW coast of Cuba southwestward to Cozumel will weaken tonight. Fresh to strong northeast winds and rough seas associated with the front and its remnants will prevail in the northwestern Caribbean and Yucatan Channel through Sun night. Easterly trade winds will return to the basin on Wed. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A warm front extends from 31N70W to 1014 mb low pressure centered near 28N75W. A stationary front continues from the low pressure across the Straits of Florida to Cozumel, Mexico. A secondary front runs from a 1014 mb low pressure located N of area near 33N75W to central Florida. The most recent satellite derived wind data show fresh to strong N winds in the wake of the secondary front with seas of 8 to 10 ft. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is under the influence of a ridge. Upper diffluence ahead of an upper-level trough is helping to induce an area of showers and thunderstorms E of the Lesser Antilles, particularly from 15N to 20N between 48W and 57W. An upper-level low spinning near 23N32W is also generating some shower activity. A cold front crosses the Madeira Islands and continues westward along 31N to about 31N40W. Gentle to moderate winds are S of the front to about 25N. Moderate to fresh trades and seas of 6 to 8 ft are seen over the tropical Atlantic and E of a surface trough that extends from 22N47W to 15N48W. Seas of 8 to 11 ft in N swell are noted near the Madeira and Canary Islands. For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned front will weaken over the northern Bahamas offshore waters through Sun, then shift eastward as a weak trough through mid week. Fresh to strong northeast winds and large NE swell prevail across the waters offshore of NE Florida and Georgia where seas are interacting with the Gulfstream. Expect winds and seas N of the front to begin to diminish late tonight. Relatively weak high pressure will settle in over the region Tue through Thu and freshen trade winds to the S of 24N. $$ GR