896 AXNT20 KNHC 040958 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Nov 4 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western Atlantic Significant Swell: A persistent stationary front extends southwestward from southeast of Bermuda across 31N61W to beyond the northwest Bahamas. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted up to 100 nm along either side of this boundary. Latest satellite scatterometer data suggest moderate to fresh to strong NE to ENE winds behind the front. Recent satellite altimeter data along with model guidance reveal 10 to 13 ft seas in large NE swell, north of 30N between 66W and 72W. Seas range from 8 to 11 ft elsewhere behind the front. Both winds and seas will subside further tonight. Please read the latest High Seas forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the Offshore Waters Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for details about this warning. Potential for heavy rainfall over Central America: Invest AL97 is located near the coast of northeastern Nicaragua, just south of the Nicaragua-Honduras border with a central pressure of 1005 mb. This broad disturbance is interacting with a monsoon trough from the Eastern Pacific to generate heavy rain and scattered thunderstorms across the west Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras and coastal areas near the Nicaragua-Honduras border. This disturbance will gradually move westward inland across Nicaragua and Honduras through early next week. Expect heavy rain and strong thunderstorms to spread northwestward into nearby Guatemala and Belize this weekend, and possible southward across Costa Rica and Panama early next week. This will increase the potential for flash flooding, along with mudslides in areas of hilly terrain. Further development of this system appears unlikely as it is already moving over land. Please refer to the local weather services for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 15N17W to 14N21W. Farther south, the ITCZ stretches from 05N21W to 10N46W. Scattered moderate convection is noted up to 100 nm along either side of the ITCZ. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front remains across the Florida Straits and Yucatan Channel with scattered showers evident up to 50 nm along either side of this feature. A surface trough is analyzed along 91W from 23N-28N with no convection at this time. The pressure gradient between a 1028 mb high over the Carolinas and lower pressures associated with the stationary front is sustaining fresh with locally strong NE winds and seas of 6 to 10 ft across the south-eastern Gulf, including the Yucatan Channel. Moderate with fresh NE to E winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are present for the central and southwestern Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate E to ESE winds and seas at 3 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, winds and seas across the eastern and central Gulf will diminish tonight as high pressure over the region slides eastward and weakens through the weekend and into early next week. Seas to 10 ft in the southeastern Gulf and Straits of Florida will gradually subside through this evening. Relatively quite marine conditions are expected from Sun well into next week as high pressure remains over the region. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section about potential heavy rainfall across Central America related to Invest AL97. Aside from Invest AL97, an upper-level trough extends northeastward from an upper low near the ABC Islands to beyond the northern Leeward Islands. Divergent winds near and south of these features are triggering scattered showers over the southeastern basin, including the Windward Islands and Atlantic waters just to the east. Moderate to fresh ENE to ESE winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft exist across much of the basin, except S of 13N, where gentle to moderate southerly winds and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail. For the forecast, the stationary front extending from the western tip of Cuba southwestward to Cozumel will weaken today. Fresh to strong northeast winds and rough seas associated with the front and its remnants will prevail in the northwestern Caribbean through this afternoon. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for significant swell and rough seas in the Western Atlantic. Other than the stationary front mentioned in the Special Features section, an elongated upper-level low near 22N55W is causing scattered moderate convection from 22N to 25N between 48W and 55W. Combining with a surface trough to the southeast, scattered moderate convection is noted from 13N to 22N between 43W and 54W. North of 26N between 30W and the stationary front/central and southeast Bahamas, gentle to moderate NE to E winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft in moderate northerly swell exist. Farther south from 10N to 26N, gentle to moderate with locally fresh ENE to E winds and 5 to 8 ft seas in moderate E swell dominate between 35W and the Lesser Antilles. Near the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands, moderate to fresh NNE to ENE winds and seas at 8 to 12 ft in large northerly swell are noted north of 12N between the Africa coast and 30W/35W. Light to gentle southeasterly and monsoonal westerly winds with 5 to 8 ft seas in mixed swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast, the aforementioned stationary front will weaken to a trough tonight over the northern Bahamas offshore waters. Fresh to strong northeast winds and rough seas behind the front will diminish today. Relatively weak high pressure will settle in over the region well into next week. $$ ERA