000 AXNT20 KNHC 032335 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Nov 4 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... W Atlantic Significant Swell: A stationary front extends from 31N62W to the NW Bahamas and NW Cuba. Showers are noted within 120 nm to the east of the boundary. Earlier scatterometer satellite pass captured fresh to near gale- force NE winds behind the front. Seas of 12-14 ft are found north of 29N and between 62W and 73W. Seas are beginning to subside near the Bahamas with 8 to 9 ft east of the islands. Winds and seas will diminish Sat. Please read the latest High Seas forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the Offshore Waters Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for details about this warning. Potential for heavy rainfall over Central America: Invest 97L is located near the coast of northern Nicaragua, around 14N83W, with a central pressure of 1007 mb. The broad disturbance is also interacting with a surface trough to the north and a stationary front in the far NW Caribbean Sea. Numerous scattered to isolated strong convection is observed on satellite imagery west of 78W. Fresh to strong NE-E winds and seas of 6-10 ft are found north of 15N and west of 76W. This system is gradually moving westward toward Central America. Heavy rains are already affecting portions of Central America and the Cayman Islands, and the unstable weather conditions will continue through early next week. The expected heavy rainfall could produce flash flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. Further development of this system appears unlikely before it moves inland over Central America tonight or on Saturday. Please refer to the local weather services for more information. This system has a low chance of development over the next 48 hours and next 7 days. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W to 08N24W. The ITCZ continues from 08N24W to 08N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 13N between 23W and 48W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front remains draped across the Florida Straits and into the Yucatan Channel. No deep convection is noted near this boundary. The rest of the Gulf of Mexico is dominated by a strong ridge centered off New England. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures associated with the frontal boundary sustain fresh to strong NE winds over most of the eastern half of the basin and the southern Gulf. Seas in the area described are 6-11 ft, with the highest seas occurring in the Yucatan Channel and in the Florida Straits. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and 3-5 ft seas prevail. For the forecast, a tight gradient is allowing for strong northeast winds and rough seas over the southeastern Gulf and Straits of Florida. These conditions will diminish Sat as high pressure over the region slides eastward and weakens through the weekend and into early next week. Seas to 11 ft in the southeastern Gulf and Straits of Florida will gradually subside through early Sat evening. Relatively quite marine conditions are expected from Sun well into next week as relatively weak high pressure remains over the region. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section about the potential heavy rainfall for Central America related to Invest 97L. Aside from Invest 97L, an upper level trough extends into the NE Caribbean Sea, supporting scattered moderate convection over the SE Caribbean. A generally dry environment is noted over the eastern Greater Antilles and the Leeward Islands. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds are evident in the central and eastern Caribbean, along with seas of 5-8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and 2-4 ft seas are prevalent. For the forecast, the stationary front will weaken through early Sat. Fresh to strong northeast winds and rough seas associated with the front and its remnants will prevail in the northwestern Caribbean through early Sat. Fresh to strong winds in the north- central and portions of the SW Caribbean associated with AL97 will continue to affect these areas through Sat morning. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for a Significant Swell region in the Western Atlantic. A surface trough over the central Atlantic, extending from 25N47W to 15N53W, is interacting with an upper level trough to the northwest. This is resulting in isolated to scattered moderate convection from 13N to 27N between 42W and 59W. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-7 ft are present in the area described. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a large subtropical ridge centered south of Nova Scotia. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in western Africa and the deep tropics sustain fresh to strong NE-E winds south of 23N and east of 40W. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft. In the far northeast Atlantic, fresh to strong northerly winds are found off Morocco and the Canary Islands. Seas of 8-14 ft are present north of 27N and east of 24W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, the stationary front in the western Atlantic will lift back to the northwest as a warm front tonight, then weaken to a trough Sat over the northern Bahamas offshore waters through the weekend. Fresh to strong northeast winds and rough seas behind the front will diminish Sat. Relatively weak high pressure will settle in over the region well into next week. $$ AReinhart