000 AXNT20 KNHC 031755 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Nov 3 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1725 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... W Atlantic Significant Swell: A stationary front extends from 31N61W to the NW Bahamas and NW Cuba. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm to the east of the boundary. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured fresh to near gale-force NE winds behind the front. Seas of 12-14 ft are found north of 29N and between 61W and 71W and up to 12 ft off the central Bahamas. Winds and seas will diminish quickly Sat. Please read the latest High Seas forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the Offshore Waters Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for details about this warning. Potential for heavy rainfall over Central America: Invest 97L is located about a hundred miles east of northern Nicaragua, near 14N82W, with a central pressure of 1007 mb. The broad disturbance is also interacting with a surface trough to the north and a stationary front in the far NW Caribbean Sea. Numerous scattered to isolated strong convection is observed on satellite imagery west of 76W. Fresh to strong NE-E winds and seas of 6-10 ft are found north of 15N and west of 76W. This system is gradually moving westward toward Central America. Heavy rains are already affecting portions of Central America and the Cayman Islands, and the unstable weather conditions will continue through early next week. The expected heavy rainfall could produce flash flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. Further development of this system appears unlikely before it moves inland over Central America tonight or on Saturday. Please refer to the local weather services for more information. This system has a low chance of development over the next 48 hours and next 7 days. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the tropical Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 09N23W. The ITCZ extends from 09N23W to 08N33W. No deep convection is present near the monsoon trough or ITCZ. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front remains draped across the Florida Straits and into the Yucatan Channel. No deep convection is noted near this boundary. The rest of the Gulf of Mexico is dominated by a strong ridge centered off New England. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures associated with the frontal boundary sustain fresh to strong NE winds over most of the eastern half of the basin and the southern Gulf. Seas in the area described are 6-11 ft, with the highest seas occurring in the Yucatan Channel. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and 3-6 ft seas prevail. For the forecast, a tight gradient is allowing for strong northeast winds and rough seas over the southeastern Gulf and Straits of Florida. These conditions will diminish today as high pressure over the region slides eastward and weakens through the weekend and into early next week. Seas to 11 ft in the southeastern Gulf and Straits of Florida will gradually subside through early Sat evening. Marine conditions further improve Sun into early next week as relatively weak high pressure remains over the region. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section about the potential heavy rainfall for Central America related to Invest 97L. Aside from Invest 97L, an upper level trough extends into the NE Caribbean Sea, supporting scattered moderate convection over the SE Caribbean. A generally dry environment envelops the eastern Greater Antilles and the Leeward Islands. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds are evident in the central and eastern Caribbean, along with seas of 4-8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and 2-4 ft seas are prevalent. For the forecast, a broad area of low pressure continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the western Caribbean Sea. Further development of this system appears unlikely before it moves inland over Central America tonight or on Saturday. A stationary front extending from the western tip of Cuba southwestward to Cozumel will weaken through early Sat. Fresh to strong northeast winds and rough seas associated with the front and its remnants will prevail in the northwestern Caribbean through early Sat. Fresh to strong winds in the north- central and portions of the SW Caribbean associated with AL97 will continue to affect these areas through Sat morning. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for a Significant Swell region in the Western Atlantic. A surface trough over the central Atlantic, extending from 24N45W to 15N48W, is interacting with an upper level trough to the northwest, resulting in isolated to scattered moderate convection from 08N to 25N and between 38W and 52W. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-7 ft are present in the area described. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a large subtropical ridge centered south of Nova Scotia. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in western Africa and the deep tropics sustain fresh to strong NE-E winds south of 23N and east of 35W. Seas in these waters are 6-10 ft. In the far northeast Atlantic, fresh to strong northerly winds are found off Morocco and the Canary Islands. Seas of 8-14 ft are present north of 27N and east of 24W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, a stationary front extends from near 31N61W to the central Bahamas and to the western tip of Cuba. The front will lift back to the northwest as a weakening trough today before dissipating Sat. The remnant trough is forecast to be over the northern Bahamas offshore waters through the weekend. Fresh to strong northeast winds and rough seas behind the front will diminish Sat. Relatively weak high pressure will settle in over the region through early next week. $$ DELGADO