477 AXNT20 KNHC 030601 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Nov 3 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico Gale Wind Warning: a pronounced stationary front extends from east of Bermuda across 31N62W and the central Bahamas to near the Yucatan Channel. Expect strong to gale-force easterly winds and rough seas of 12 to 15 ft up to 150 nm behind the front behind 73W and 85W, including the northwest Bahamas and Florida Straits through Friday morning. Afterward, both winds and seas will gradually diminish Friday evening through Saturday. Please read the latest High Seas forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the Offshore Waters Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for details about these warnings. Potential for heavy rainfall over Central America: A disturbance (Invest 97L) is located in the west-central Caribbean Sea near 14.5N79.5W with a central pressure of 1007 mb. Numerous heavy showers and scattered thunderstorms are flaring up from 14N to 19N west of 77W, including the Gulf of Honduras. This low is gradually moving westward toward Central America. Development, if any, of this system is expected to be slow to occur before it moves inland over Central America Friday night or Saturday. Plenty of tropical moisture and an unstable atmosphere is forecast to produce heavy rains over portions of central America from Belize and Guatemala southward to Panama from Friday through early next week. This rainfall is likely to result in flash flooding and possible landslides. Please refer to the local weather services for more information. This system has a low chance of development over the next 48 hours and next 7 days. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Sierra Leone coast near Conakry, then reaches westward to near 06N16W. An ITCZ continues west-southwestward from 06N16W across 04N25W to 02N36W. No significant convection is noted near the monsoon trough. Widely scattered moderate convection is found up to 180 nm along either side of the ITCZ west of 26W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section about a Gale Warning in the Straits of Florida. A stationary front curves southwestward from the central Bahamas across the Florida Straits to near the Yucatan Channel. Scattered showers are occurring along and up to 150 nm north of the front. A surface ridge extends northeastward from a 1022 mb high near Veracruz, Mexico to the Florida Panhandle. Outside the Gale Warning area, Fresh to locally strong NE to ENE winds and seas of 8 to 12 ft are found at the southeastern Gulf, including the Yucatan Channel. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 5 to 8 ft seas exist across the central and northeastern Gulf, and the Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate ENE to ESE winds and seas at 3 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, strong high pressure continue to build over the area in the wake of the stationary front. Fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas up to 10 ft in the Bay of Campeche will diminish overnight. Conditions should further improve Sun into early next week as high pressure settles over the region. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section about the potential heavy rainfall for Central America related to Invest AL97. A broad surface trough curves northeastward from the aforementioned Invest AL97 to beyond eastern Cuba. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are found near Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and easter Cuba. An upper-level low near 15N64W is triggering isolated thunderstorms across the eastern and south-central basin. Fresh to strong NNE to ENE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are present at the northwestern basin. Fresh with locally strong E winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted at the west-central and north-central basin. Light to gentle winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft dominate the southwestern basin. Moderate to fresh E to ESE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas exist elsewhere in the basin. For the forecast, Invest AL97 is expected to bring heavy rains over portions of Jamaica through tonight and across Central America through early next week. A stationary front extending from the western tip of Cuba southwestward to Cozumel will remain stationary while it gradually weakens through late Fri. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas associated with the front and its remnants will prevail in the northwestern basin through early Sat. Fresh to strong winds in the north-central and portions of the southwestern basin associated with AL97 will continue to affect these regions through Sat morning. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for a Gale Warning in the western Atlantic. A pronounced stationary front extends from east of Bermuda across 31N62W and the central Bahamas. Widely to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen along and up to 160 nm northwest of the front. A surface trough curves southwestward from 25N70W across the southeast Bahamas to beyond eastern Cuba. Widely scattered moderate convection is occurring near the central Bahamas. An upper-level low near 22N50W is producing similar convection from 17N to 25N between 37W and 57W. Convergent trade winds are causing scattered moderate convection from 08N to 16N between 40W and 53W. Outside the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are evident behind the stationary front north of 27N between 65W and Florida/Georgia coast. East of the front, gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas exist north of 24N west of 39W. To the south, moderate with locally fresh ENE to E winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are noted from 10N to 24N between 38W and the Lesser Antilles. For the eastern Atlantic, moderate to fresh NNE to ENE trades and seas at 7 to 9 ft dominate north of 08N between the Africa coast and 38W, including the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands. Light to gentle with locally moderate SE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast, the stationary front will start to weaken while lifting to the northwest Fri before dissipating Sat. The remnant trough is forecast to be over the northwest Bahamas offshore waters the remaining weekend. Ongoing gusts to gale force NE winds and rough seas behind the front, and across the northwest and central Bahamas offshore waters, the southern Florida seaboard as well as the Florida Straits will continue through early Fri. $$ Chan