000 AXNT20 KNHC 021046 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Nov 2 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... A cold front has moved away from the gulf waters and it currently extends across the W Caribbean. Behind the front, strong to near gale NE winds with frequent gusts to gale force are expected in the Straits of Florida through Fri morning. Seas to 10 ft are currently prevailing, and will increase to 12-14 ft today and continue through Fri. ...Atlantic Gale Wind Warning... A strong cold front extends from 31N66W to 22.5N79W. Expect strong to gale-force winds and rough seas behind the front from 23N northward between 70W and 81W, including in the Atlantic exposures. Gusts to gale-force are forecast from 75W westward. Expect these conditions through the next 24 hours. Please, read the latest NHC High Seas forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details about these warnings. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to 03N42W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ between 25W-30W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the gale-force winds that are associated with the cold front that has been moving through Gulf of Mexico during the last 24 hours. High pressure ridge prevails across the basin. Moderate to fresh winds prevail N of 22N, and strong to near gale winds are noted S of 22N. Seas of 6-8 ft prevail N of 27N, while 8-11 ft seas prevail S of 27N, except for 12-20 ft seas over the Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, winds/seas are forecast to continue to diminish today across most of the basin. Fresh to strong northeast winds and rough seas will continue to affect the southeastern Gulf through Fri before diminishing Sat. Frequent gusts to gale force are expected across the Straits of Florida through early Fri. Conditions further improve Sun into early next week as high pressure settles over the region. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Invest AL97 is analyzed over the central Caribbean near 15N74W, 1007 mb. Scattered moderate convection is noted within the low. A strong cold front extends from central Cuba southwestward to Belize. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted across the western half of the basin W of 74W. Fresh to strong northerly winds and seas to 10 ft are found in the NW Caribbean, mainly within 200 nm of the Yucatan Channel. Moderate easterly trade winds and seas of 2-4 ft are occurring in the eastern Caribbean. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, the disorganized AL97 will prevail over the central Caribbean today. Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for some development of this disturbance over the next couple of days before it moves inland over Central America by this weekend. Regardless of development, this system has the potential to produce heavy rains over portions of Central America late this week and into the weekend. The strong cold front will continue moving E across the western Caribbean today, then becoming stationary and dissipating by Sat. Strong to near gale force northeast winds and rough seas will follow the front through Fri night. Fresh to strong winds are also expected across the central Caribbean into Fri due to the pressure gradient between AL97 and strong high pressure north of the area. Winds/seas conditions will diminish further starting late Sat and into next week as high pressure north of the area weakens. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details about the gale-force warning currently in effect for the W Atlantic. E of the front described above, a pre-frontal trough extends from 31N63W to 23N71W with scattered showers. To the E, a 1014 mb low is centered near 25N57W. S of the low, a surface trough extends from 16N58W to 11N55W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along this trough. To the NE, a pair of surface troughs are enhancing convection from 13N-21N between 30W-47W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin. Moderate to rough seas are from 26N northward between 28W-42W. Moderate seas are in the rest of the Atlantic. Moderate to fresh winds cover most of the area. For the forecast, the front will continue moving SE today then stalling on Fri. The front is expected to dissipate on Sat, with the remnant trough drifting back to the W over the waters north of the Bahamas. Strong winds and rough seas, with some of the zones experiencing frequent gusts to gale force, are expected behind the front through tonight. Marine conditions will significantly improve starting late Sat and into next week as high pressure over the region weakens. $$ ERA