000 AXNT20 KNHC 020005 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Nov 2 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2340 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front has passed through the basin and now extends from the Straits of Florida, across the Yucatan Channel and to northern Belize. Gale force winds of 40 kt and very rough seas to 20 ft are in the SW Gulf. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale force over the Bay of Campeche overnight. Winds and seas will begin to diminish across the majority of the basin on Thu. However, fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas will continue to affect the southeastern Gulf and the Straits of Florida through Fri before diminishing Sat. Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front extending from near 31N70W to the NW Bahamas and to the Straits of Florida will reach from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas Thu morning, and stall. Strong NE winds, with frequent gusts to gale force, and rough seas are behind the front, and will prevail through Fri. The front is expected to dissipate on Sat, with the remnant trough drifting back to the W over the waters north of the Bahamas. Marine conditions will significantly improve starting late Sat. Please, see the latest NHC High Seas forecast issued by National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal, then continues westward to near 12N19W. The ITCZ continues from 12N19W to 07N47W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 14N between 20W and 33W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A strong cold front moved across the Gulf waters bringing strong to gale force northerly winds and very rough seas. Please, see the Special Features section for more details. Mainly fresh to strong NE winds and 6-9 ft seas are noted over the Gulf basin north of 21N. A wide band of mainly low clouds with scattered light to moderate showers associated with the front remain in the southwest Gulf. This cloudiness is also banked up along the E slope of the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico. Veracruz is reporting drizzle. Dry air along with moderate NE winds are noted over the NW Gulf. For the forecast, weather conditions across the Gulf region remain associated with the passage of the strong cold front. Please, refer to the the Special Features section for more information. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Shower and thunderstorm activity remain disorganized in association with an area of low pressure, Invest AL97, over the central Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions are forecast to become slightly more conducive for development in a day or two, and a tropical depression could form when the system moves over the southwestern Caribbean Sea during the latter part of this week. Regardless of development, this system has the potential to produce heavy rains over portions of Central America late this week and into the weekend. Currently, this system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and a medium chance through 7 days. Otherwise, a strong cold front extends from western Cuba southwestward to northern Belize. A few showers are seen off eastern Yucatan, while scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are evident in the SW Caribbean. Fresh northerly winds and seas of 4-8 ft are found in the NW Caribbean, mainly within 200 nm of the Yucatan Channel. Fresh northerly winds and wave heights of 1-3 ft are present off eastern Nicaragua. Moderate easterly trade winds and seas of 2-4 ft are occurring in the eastern Caribbean. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, the strong cold front extending from western Cuba southwestward to inland the southern part of the Yucatan Peninsula will reach from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Thu morning, then become stationary and dissipate on Sat. Strong to near gale force northeast winds and rough seas will follow the front through Fri night before diminishing on Sat. Fresh to strong winds are also expected across the central Caribbean late Thu into Fri due to the pressure gradient between AL97 and strong high pressure north of the area. Winds and sea conditions improve further starting late Sat and into next week high pressure north of the area weakens. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, see the Special Features section for more details on a cold front moving across the SW Atlantic waters, west of 70W. A weak trough of low pressure extends from near 30N66W to the Turks and Caicos Islands. Scattered showers are depicted within 60 nm of the trough axis. Moderate to fresh southerly winds and seas of 4-7 ft are found east of the trough, north of 28N and between 60W and 65W. High pressure over the central Atlantic extends a ridge southwestward to the Greater Antilles supporting gentle to moderate winds north of 20N between 50W and 70W. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh locally easterly winds prevail across most of the central and eastern Atlantic. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, the strong cold front is expected to stall from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas Thur morning. Please, see the Special Features section for more details related to the cold front. $$ Mora