000 AXNT20 KNHC 011017 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Wed Nov 1 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front extends from near Naples, Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche. Gale force winds of 40 kt and very rough seas of 20 to 23 ft are noted in the wake of the front over the SW Gulf. The front will move southeast of the basin this morning. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale force over the Bay of Campeche by tonight. Winds and seas will also begin to diminish across the NW Gulf today, and across much of the basin on Thu. However, fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas will continue to affect the SE Gulf and the Straits of Florida through Fri before diminishing Sat. Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front is currently moving across the western Atlantic, just E of N Florida. The front will reach from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas Thu morning, then gradually move back westward to the NW Bahamas by Fri morning, before dissipating on Sat. Strong winds, with frequent gusts to gale force, and rough seas are expected behind the front through Fri. Seas are expected to build to 12-14 ft just N and E of the Bahamas on Thu. Please, see the latest NHC High Seas forecast issued by National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic trough the coast of Guinea Bissau then continues westward to near 09N25W. The ITCZ extends from 09N25W to 06N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted over the E Atlantic from the Equator to 15N between 10W and 35W. A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce this convective activity. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A strong cold front continues to move across the Gulf waters followed by strong gale force winds and very rough seas. Please, see the Special Features section for more details. A wide band of mainly low clouds with scattered light to moderate showers is associated with the front. This cloudiness is also banked up along the E slope of the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico. Veracruz is reporting drizzle. Dry air is already entering the NW Gulf. For the forecast, weather conditions across the Gulf region remain associated with the passage of a strong cold front, forecast to exit the basin this morning. Please, refer to the the Special Features section for more information. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized in association with a trough of low pressure (AL97) located over the central Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions are forecast to become slightly more conducive for development in a couple of days, and a tropical depression could form during the latter part of this week while moving generally westward over the central and southwestern Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, this system has the potential to produce heavy rains over portions of Central America late this week and into the weekend. Currently, this system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and a medium chance through 7 days. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are observed over parts of Jamaica, across the waters between eastern Cuba and Jamaica, in the Windward Passage and in the Gulf of Gonave. This convective activity is the result of a surface trough combined with upper level diffluence. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds dominate most of the NW and central Caribbean with seas in the 1 to 3 ft range. Moderate E to SE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are occurring in the eastern Caribbean. Fresh N winds and seas of 4 to 5 ft are noted in the Yucatan Channel due to an approaching strong cold front. For the forecast, moderate or weaker winds are expected across the basin through this morning. At that time, a strong cold front will enter the NW Caribbean, extend from E Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Thu morning, then drift westward Fri morning, before dissipating on Sat. Strong to near gale NE winds and rough seas will follow the front through Fri night before diminishing on Sat. Fresh to strong winds are also expected across the central Caribbean late Thu into Fri due to the pressure gradient between AL97 and strong high pressure N of the area. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak area of low pressure is located near 29N72W. No significant convection is depicted in association with this low. A surface trough extends from the low southward across to the central Bahamas into eastern Cuba. Divergence aloft is supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 20N northward to beyond Bermuda between 65W and 75W. High pressure over the central Atlantic extends a ridge southwestward across the waters between 57W and 65W. Another 1011 mb low pressure system is near 24N53W. To the NE, fresh NE winds, with seas 8 to 10 ft are occurring N of 26N between 30W and 50W, associated with a surface trough. Fresh N winds are near the coasts of southern Western Sahara and Mauritania. Elsewhere, south of 26N and E of 60W, mainly light to gentle winds are seen based on satellite derived wind data. Seas of 4 to 7 ft dominate most of the Atlantic forecast waters. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms related to an upper-level low are affecting the waters E of the Lesser Antilles, particularly from 15N to 17N between 55W and 60W. For the forecast W of 55W, the weak low will move northeastward ahead of a strong cold front currently moving across the NW waters. Please, see the Special Features section for more details related to the cold front. $$ GR